LoseWinner
0x0b46c19958d0032466eb3f2adb6e9d2b66cccd0b
- Realised P&L
- $13.0k
- Volume
- $147.6k
- Markets traded
- 17
- Open portfolio
- $13.7k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar8.8%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded17
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample1 position
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration35.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July? · Yes | 0.472 | 0.514 | $4.8k | +$398.18 |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026? · No | 0.759 | 1.000 | $4.3k | +$1.0k |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.227 | 0.255 | $4.0k | +$437.05 |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.706 | 1.000 | $573.20 | +$168.10 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.205 | $20.50 | −$1.50 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$10.3kat 0.603U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 22:02 | Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July? | BUY | 0.57634131 | $576.34 |
| 08-02 22:00 | Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July? | BUY | 0.5002382288 | $101.67 |
| 08-02 21:46 | Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July? | SELL | 0.4130010569 | $2.1k |
| 08-02 21:44 | Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July? | BUY | 0.4019020995 | $136.87 |
| 08-02 21:42 | Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July? | BUY | 0.49982 | $499.82 |
| 08-02 21:41 | Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July? | BUY | 0.48852407 | $977.05 |
| 08-02 21:40 | Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July? | BUY | 0.44998005 | $899.96 |
| 08-02 21:38 | Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July? | BUY | 0.441408 | $441.41 |
| 08-02 21:35 | Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July? | BUY | 0.4313784606 | $157.38 |
| 08-02 21:35 | Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July? | BUY | 0.4288831995 | $192.81 |
| 08-02 21:35 | Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July? | BUY | 0.4220945946 | $312.35 |
| 08-02 17:06 | Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July? | SELL | 0.46546475 | $186.19 |
| 08-02 13:36 | Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July? | BUY | 0.699 | $65.34 |
| 08-02 13:35 | Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July? | BUY | 0.6999796553 | $285.91 |
| 08-02 13:30 | Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July? | BUY | 0.4729444227 | $363.02 |