Pitchforkk
0x0a53282124062874b45d6489a95a26f62c6d7a6f
- Realised P&L
- $18.3k
- Volume
- $1.55M
- Markets traded
- 780
- Open portfolio
- $14.7k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.2%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded780
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration21.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration29.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · No | 0.500 | 0.766 | $4.4k | +$1.5k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.920 | 0.905 | $4.4k | −$72.53 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.860 | 0.875 | $2.3k | +$39.00 |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.234 | $1.3k | −$1.5k |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? · Yes | 0.638 | 0.680 | $1.1k | +$66.82 |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.630 | 0.645 | $1.0k | +$24.00 |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.298 | 0.275 | $207.01 | −$17.40 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.4kat 0.586US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
- +$2.4kat 0.383US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
- +$1.3kat 0.702Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?
- +$1.3kat 0.336US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
- +$1.0kat 0.660 Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-07 19:10 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.92 | $4.4k |
| 08-07 17:33 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.4629952997 | $2.2k |
| 08-06 20:42 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.122264047 | $168.64 |
| 08-06 20:18 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | SELL | 0.26 | $201.03 |
| 08-06 19:48 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? | BUY | 0.22 | $111.34 |
| 08-06 19:38 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.29 | $108.22 |
| 08-06 18:47 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.44 | $2.1k |
| 08-06 16:21 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? | SELL | 0.2548981527 | $846.80 |
| 08-06 16:17 | US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? | SELL | 0.7300391055 | $2.0k |
| 08-06 16:01 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2999212257 | $380.73 |
| 08-06 12:17 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.69 | $645.01 |
| 08-06 01:07 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? | SELL | 0.3243861977 | $217.30 |
| 08-05 19:15 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? | SELL | 0.4040097112 | $1.2k |
| 08-05 14:23 | US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31? | SELL | 0.7355793026 | $13.08 |
| 08-05 14:05 | US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31? | BUY | 0.78 | $13.87 |