0x0705488A6056eAfA396E0Dc964FC10C581f09af4-1770180341832
0x0705488a6056eafa396e0dc964fc10c581f09af4
- Realised P&L
- $18.56
- Volume
- $20.2k
- Markets traded
- 18
- Open portfolio
- $1.98
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded18
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration61.7% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample16 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)93.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Thinky have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of August 2026? · No | 0.999 | 0.995 | $1.98 | −$0.01 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET · Up | 0.400 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$30.00at 0.400Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET
- +$17.50at 0.650Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET
- +$0.76at 0.850Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026?
- +$0.10at 0.940Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?
- +$0.09at 0.990Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-05 00:12 | Will Thinky have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of August 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.99 |
| 07-18 00:10 | Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026? | BUY | 0.9759999951 | $1.59 |
| 06-07 00:14 | Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | BUY | 0.9879999926 | $1.07 |
| 06-07 00:14 | Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.993 | $1.14 |
| 06-07 00:13 | Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.999 | $2.39 |
| 05-07 02:22 | Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C or below on May 8? | BUY | 0.998 | $1.06 |
| 05-07 02:20 | Will the People’s Bank of China not change rates in May? | BUY | 0.9689999871 | $2.18 |
| 05-07 02:20 | Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $4.18 |
| 04-07 01:11 | Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C or below on April 8? | BUY | 0.998 | $1.16 |
| 04-07 01:10 | Will the Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the April decision? | BUY | 0.997 | $2.10 |
| 04-07 01:09 | Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026? | BUY | 0.8499998616 | $4.30 |
| 03-04 01:33 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31? | BUY | 0.9399997368 | $1.50 |
| 03-04 01:09 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET | BUY | 0.99 | $8.91 |
| 03-04 00:40 | Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? | SELL | 0.995 | $10.0k |
| 03-03 12:11 | Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? | BUY | 0.996 | $10.0k |