drroley
0x01c9b35cf1fb3a9e50b7a25d31352a884a320f37
- Realised P&L
- $-102.46
- Volume
- $2.2k
- Markets traded
- 7
- Open portfolio
- $590.56
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded7
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample2 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration89.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.460 | 0.485 | $527.17 | +$27.17 |
| Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)? · Yes | 0.341 | 0.285 | $58.42 | −$11.58 |
| Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)? · Yes | 0.045 | 0.033 | $3.59 | −$1.41 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.023 | 0.015 | $1.35 | −$0.65 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? · Yes | 0.822 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$102.11 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.35at 0.977Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today?
- +$-5.30at 0.920Will a nuclear weapon detonate in 2024?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-31 04:22 | Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)? | BUY | 0.045204122 | $5.00 |
| 07-29 20:00 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.022999989 | $2.00 |
| 07-29 19:48 | Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)? | BUY | 0.3413639763 | $70.00 |
| 07-29 19:39 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.4599999998 | $500.00 |
| 04-08 00:56 | US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.8219436515 | $102.11 |
| 04-07 22:43 | Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? | BUY | 0.9770061068 | $99.76 |
| 11-23 17:51 | Will a nuclear weapon detonate in 2024? | SELL | 0.9 | $238.57 |
| 11-23 05:37 | Will a nuclear weapon detonate in 2024? | BUY | 0.92 | $243.88 |