0xfe05a892bf05500050ba928e876ee819af635a5e
- Realised P&L
- $21.27
- Volume
- $1.2k
- Markets traded
- 173
- Open portfolio
- $2.79
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.8%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded173
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration14.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)22.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration96.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on August 5? · Yes | 0.370 | 0.998 | $2.70 | +$1.70 |
| Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on August 5? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.015 | $0.06 | −$0.94 |
| Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on August 5? · Yes | 0.390 | 0.010 | $0.03 | −$0.97 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$13.18at 0.060Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on August 1?
- +$8.42at 0.100Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on July 31?
- +$6.39at 0.133Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 30°C on August 2?
- +$6.08at 0.141Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C on August 4?
- +$5.92at 0.130Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C or below on August 4?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-05 08:56 | Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on August 5? | SELL | 0.02 | $0.11 |
| 08-05 08:55 | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on August 5? | SELL | 0.995 | $2.62 |
| 08-05 08:55 | Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on August 5? | SELL | 0.94 | $2.76 |
| 08-05 08:54 | Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on August 5? | SELL | 0.99 | $3.30 |
| 08-05 06:08 | Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on August 5? | SELL | 0.99 | $5.20 |
| 08-05 06:07 | Will the highest temperature in Manila be 28°C on August 5? | SELL | 0.95 | $6.33 |
| 08-04 16:25 | Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on August 4? | SELL | 0.07 | $0.32 |
| 08-04 16:25 | Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on August 4? | SELL | 0.05 | $0.24 |
| 08-04 16:25 | Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on August 4? | SELL | 0.04 | $0.24 |
| 08-04 16:25 | Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on August 4? | SELL | 0.07 | $0.26 |
| 08-04 16:15 | Will the highest temperature in Manila be 28°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.1499998875 | $1.00 |
| 08-04 16:15 | Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.29999982 | $1.00 |
| 08-04 16:14 | Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.29999982 | $1.00 |
| 08-04 15:18 | Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.239999856 | $1.00 |
| 08-04 15:16 | Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on August 4? | SELL | 0.998 | $3.56 |