0xf6fbb09c37e13f150edf58f70fbf9d2087890ba1
- Realised P&L
- $7.33
- Volume
- $66.53
- Markets traded
- 20
- Open portfolio
- $14.48
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar11.0%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded20
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration42.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample13 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)53.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration17.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? · Yes | 0.790 | 1.000 | $2.53 | +$0.53 |
| Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $162 Week of August 3 2026? · Yes | 0.760 | 0.930 | $2.45 | +$0.45 |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026? · No | 0.780 | 0.895 | $2.29 | +$0.29 |
| Will ISM Services PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in July? · No | 0.770 | 0.805 | $2.09 | +$0.09 |
| Will Trump say "Hell" 8+ times during remarks in Las Vegas? · No | 0.590 | 0.585 | $1.98 | −$0.02 |
| Will the July 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%? · No | 0.590 | 0.645 | $1.94 | +$0.17 |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? · No | 0.690 | 0.415 | $1.20 | −$0.80 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.14at 0.280Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?
- +$2.65at 0.430Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?
- +$1.69at 0.540Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.60 and $2.90 on July 31, 2026?
- +$1.28at 0.580Will Warsh say "Independence" during July Press Conference?
- +$0.74at 0.730Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $280 Week of August 3 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-04 09:34 | Will Trump say "Hell" 8+ times during remarks in Las Vegas? | BUY | 0.5899999675 | $2.00 |
| 08-04 01:32 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.78 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 17:31 | Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $162 Week of August 3 2026? | BUY | 0.7599998024 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 09:31 | Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $280 Week of August 3 2026? | BUY | 0.7299999087 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 01:13 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.2799999048 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 17:12 | Will ISM Services PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in July? | BUY | 0.7699997035 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 08:54 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.6899999586 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 00:40 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? | BUY | 0.7899999289 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 16:37 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.4299999505 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 03:46 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 30 to August 1, 2026? | BUY | 0.42 | $1.47 |
| 07-31 19:46 | Will the July 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%? | BUY | 0.59 | $1.77 |
| 07-31 11:43 | New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.53 |
| 07-29 22:41 | Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.53 |
| 07-29 03:02 | Will Warsh say "Independence" during July Press Conference? | BUY | 0.5799998886 | $1.77 |
| 07-28 18:07 | Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.53 |