goggler
0xf6297352e480325acdb3575335e619eb2af8bda0
- Realised P&L
- $11.3k
- Volume
- $1.10M
- Markets traded
- 832
- Open portfolio
- $1.8k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.0%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded832
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration45.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)38.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration43.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · No | 0.500 | 0.792 | $792.50 | +$292.50 |
| Eli Lilly licenses Peptron’s SmartDepot by October 7? · No | 0.450 | 0.875 | $640.21 | +$310.96 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.207 | $207.50 | −$292.50 |
| Epstein storage units raided in 2026? · Yes | 0.336 | 0.265 | $186.50 | −$50.08 |
| Betmoar FDV above $50M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.400 | 0.360 | $11.50 | −$1.28 |
| Will Cerebras' market cap be less than $50B at market close on IPO day? · Yes | 0.156 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$237.48 |
| PGA Championship: Hole in One? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$22.17 |
| Will SpaceX raise between $40B and $50B in its IPO? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$75.00 |
| Will Deep Fission not IPO before August 2026? · Yes | 0.030 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.00 |
| Spread: Spain (-2.5) · Spain | 0.550 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$549.99 |
| Will Safepoint not IPO before August 2026? · No | 0.092 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$101.20 |
| Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? · Yes | 0.680 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$339.99 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.8kat 0.670Will BW Industrial Holdings not IPO before June 2026?
- +$2.4kat 0.270Over $100M committed to the Gensyn public sale?
- +$2.2kat 0.523Over 25,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?
- +$1.4kat 0.880Over $400M committed to the Monad public sale?
- +$1.3kat 0.756Cardinals vs. Seahawks
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-30 19:48 | Will Ed Miliband be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election? | SELL | 0.983 | $6.55 |
| 06-30 19:47 | Will Al Carns be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election? | SELL | 0.9773 | $97.73 |
| 06-15 15:29 | IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 | BUY | 0.39 | $195.00 |
| 06-15 15:28 | Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? | BUY | 0.68 | $339.99 |
| 06-15 15:27 | Spread: Spain (-2.5) | BUY | 0.55 | $549.99 |
| 05-28 13:30 | Will Encore Medical not IPO before June 2026? | BUY | 0.94 | $18.80 |
| 05-27 14:14 | Will RIKU Dining Group Ltd not IPO before June 2026? | BUY | 0.9122137887 | $86.53 |
| 05-27 14:14 | Will Encore Medical not IPO before June 2026? | BUY | 0.9152380952 | $115.32 |
| 05-23 00:43 | Will RIKU Dining Group Ltd not IPO before June 2026? | BUY | 0.91 | $291.20 |
| 05-23 00:43 | Will RIKU Dining Group Ltd not IPO before June 2026? | BUY | 0.9 | $17.00 |
| 05-14 14:34 | Will Micware not IPO before July 2026? | SELL | 0.0024010501 | $0.19 |
| 05-13 17:52 | Over $60M committed to the Printr public sale? | SELL | 0.016 | $2.80 |
| 05-12 21:41 | Will Cerebras' market cap be at least $100B at market close on IPO day? | SELL | 0.05 | $5.50 |
| 05-12 19:27 | Will EagleRock's market cap be less than $2.0B at market close on IPO day? | SELL | 0.0722277624 | $8.11 |
| 05-12 19:10 | Will GMR Solutions' market cap be between $5.5B and $6.0B at market close on IPO day? | SELL | 0.04 | $0.10 |