xdiot
0xf5e4cf27a1270660468c61ae32baf800256549df
- Realised P&L
- $74.72
- Volume
- $590.76
- Markets traded
- 7
- Open portfolio
- $151.30
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar12.6%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded7
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration53.8% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample2 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration40.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in August? · Yes | 0.760 | 0.865 | $60.55 | +$7.35 |
| Will SpaceX (SPCX) hit (HIGH) $140 in August? · No | 0.640 | 0.695 | $45.60 | +$3.60 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 21, 2026? · Yes | 0.720 | 0.850 | $26.38 | +$4.04 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 14, 2026? · Yes | 0.670 | 0.785 | $11.80 | +$1.73 |
| Will Google have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of August 2026? · Yes | 0.009 | 0.035 | $6.94 | +$5.11 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$28.51at 0.685Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $0.80T and $0.90T on July 31?
- +$24.50at 0.800Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-05 02:00 | Will SpaceX (SPCX) hit (HIGH) $140 in August? | BUY | 0.64 | $42.00 |
| 08-03 02:25 | Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in August? | BUY | 0.76 | $53.20 |
| 08-03 02:11 | Will Google have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of August 2026? | BUY | 0.012 | $0.79 |
| 08-03 02:11 | Will Google have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of August 2026? | BUY | 0.008 | $1.04 |
| 08-03 02:05 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.72 | $22.35 |
| 08-03 02:05 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.67 | $10.07 |
| 07-22 19:53 | Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $0.80T and $0.90T on July 31? | BUY | 0.6849999999 | $62.00 |
| 06-23 06:11 | Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? | BUY | 0.8 | $98.00 |