nejceur
0xf49324983fde7da38cb38cbe7590f3dc87805d5e
- Realised P&L
- $-10.78
- Volume
- $1.8k
- Markets traded
- 188
- Open portfolio
- $18.12
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded188
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration23.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)68.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration16.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$20.22at 0.090Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by August 31?
- +$6.33at 0.240Will Russia capture Huliaipole by December 31?
- +$5.69at 0.260Will Russia capture Novopavlivka by September 30?
- +$4.67at 0.300Will Russia capture Pokrovsk train station by October 31?
- +$4.45at 0.310Will Russia capture Novopavlivka by December 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-19 17:47 | Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9399997556 | $2.00 |
| 06-19 17:46 | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31? | BUY | 0.94 | $2.00 |
| 06-12 15:10 | Will the U.S. national debt hit $40 trillion before 2027? | BUY | 0.9769999946 | $2.00 |
| 06-03 14:44 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | BUY | 0.9719995801 | $2.00 |
| 06-03 14:44 | Kurds declare independence from Iran? | BUY | 0.9829999966 | $2.00 |
| 06-03 13:01 | Knicks vs. Spurs | BUY | 0.64 | $1.00 |
| 06-03 13:01 | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.84 | $1.00 |
| 06-03 13:01 | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.91 | $1.00 |
| 06-03 12:59 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? | BUY | 0.3359998307 | $1.00 |
| 06-03 12:59 | Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.4899999534 | $2.00 |
| 05-13 14:16 | US Kamikaze Dolphins confirmed by May 31? | BUY | 0.982999998 | $2.00 |
| 05-06 11:23 | Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.97 | $1.00 |
| 05-06 11:23 | Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9299999907 | $1.00 |
| 04-30 12:12 | Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30? | BUY | 0.0379999641 | $1.00 |
| 04-29 09:29 | Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by June 30? | BUY | 0.9649999011 | $2.00 |