LunaKnight07
0xf364b44c4d2bddb9a6d9d4278a414b0d0b78db06
- Realised P&L
- $-0.40
- Volume
- $143.6k
- Markets traded
- 28
- Open portfolio
- $2.14
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded28
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration32.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample26 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will FIFA Sell Equity in the World Cup in 2026? · No | 0.989 | 0.981 | $2.14 | −$0.02 |
| Will Franco Parisi come in third in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election? · No | 0.973 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.42 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.72at 0.836Will the US ban sharing deepfake nudes in 2024?
- +$0.25at 0.968Honda and Nissan merger announced before February?
- +$0.24at 0.968Will India strike Pakistan by March 31?
- +$0.18at 0.979Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
- +$0.16at 0.966Will a nuclear weapon detonate in 2024?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-06 06:09 | Will FIFA Sell Equity in the World Cup in 2026? | BUY | 0.988999658 | $2.16 |
| 08-06 06:09 | Any country withdraws from EU before 2027? | SELL | 0.959 | $1.64 |
| 07-28 13:16 | Any country withdraws from EU before 2027? | BUY | 0.9669996412 | $1.66 |
| 06-06 05:20 | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on June 6? | BUY | 0.993 | $1.85 |
| 06-06 05:20 | 1 megaton meteor strike in 2026? | SELL | 0.953 | $3.35 |
| 05-10 12:38 | 1 megaton meteor strike in 2026? | BUY | 0.9759999977 | $3.43 |
| 05-10 12:38 | Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | SELL | 0.991 | $14.87 |
| 04-04 06:17 | Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.9789999997 | $14.69 |
| 03-14 09:47 | Will India strike Pakistan by March 31? | BUY | 0.9679999989 | $7.36 |
| 02-03 06:16 | Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of February? | BUY | 0.983 | $7.23 |
| 01-30 17:26 | Trump deploys active duty troops to Minnesota by Jan 31? | BUY | 0.9939999997 | $7.19 |
| 01-30 17:25 | Maduro exiled to Russia by March 31? | BUY | 0.9869999381 | $7.00 |
| 11-10 11:28 | Will Franco Parisi come in third in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election? | BUY | 0.9729999984 | $2.42 |
| 11-04 13:39 | Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on November 4? | BUY | 0.9699999917 | $2.35 |
| 11-03 05:52 | Will Pathward Financial (CASH) beat its quarterly EPS estimate? | BUY | 0.997999752 | $2.35 |