0xf257e1b8cd2ab5c55ee05c20c560202544441950
- Realised P&L
- $-3.9k
- Volume
- $1.19M
- Markets traded
- 2,095
- Open portfolio
- $4.5k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded2,095
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration32.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration10.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$938.22at 0.280Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?
- +$764.75at 0.080Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?
- +$729.61at 0.049Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in July 2026?
- +$640.81at 0.120Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?
- +$616.29at 0.020Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-03 04:02 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026? | SELL | 0.2966849741 | $57.26 |
| 08-03 03:56 | Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.44 | $2.20 |
| 08-03 03:04 | Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.44 | $3.52 |
| 08-03 03:04 | Will Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026? | SELL | 0.31 | $27.90 |
| 08-03 02:57 | Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.4939999968 | $3.06 |
| 08-03 02:36 | Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.44 | $43.00 |
| 08-03 02:14 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.72 | $8.84 |
| 08-03 02:11 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.6699999988 | $5.52 |
| 08-03 02:01 | Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.0909090909 | $1.65 |
| 08-03 01:46 | Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.0899999353 | $1.21 |
| 08-03 01:34 | Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.1 | $3.08 |
| 08-03 01:22 | Will Ted Cruz post 100-119 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.2225852537 | $13.44 |
| 08-03 01:12 | Will Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.28 | $13.44 |
| 08-03 01:06 | Will White House post 180-199 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.0591044611 | $3.30 |
| 08-03 00:47 | Will White House post 180-199 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.0599999675 | $1.70 |