gst
0xf2531b12c8806360d1cbc2145da868468da5b484
- Realised P&L
- $28.53
- Volume
- $16.5k
- Markets traded
- 56
- Open portfolio
- $69.20
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded56
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration34.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample48 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)33.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration70.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran leadership change by September 30? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.075 | $48.75 | −$16.25 |
| Spain snap election called in 2026? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.180 | $20.45 | −$4.55 |
| Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.011 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$11.20 |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.154 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$56.00 |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.114 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$22.40 |
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.086 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$22.40 |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.071 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$33.60 |
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.034 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$11.20 |
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.055 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$33.60 |
| Will Atlético Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League final? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.12 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$148.63at 0.159Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$119.42at 0.092Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$30.86at 0.230Elon Musk out as Head of DOGE before July?
- +$25.67at 0.230Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
- +$22.39at 0.330Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-07 11:48 | Iran leadership change by September 30? | BUY | 0.1 | $65.00 |
| 08-02 18:01 | Spain snap election called in 2026? | BUY | 0.2199999944 | $25.00 |
| 07-15 21:33 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.419 | $153.02 |
| 07-15 21:33 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.581 | $204.63 |
| 05-05 10:09 | Will Atlético Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League final? | BUY | 0.2699999764 | $8.12 |
| 05-05 10:07 | Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? | SELL | 0.69 | $7.96 |
| 04-15 11:39 | Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? | BUY | 0.7299999896 | $8.42 |
| 04-12 10:27 | Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.011 | $11.20 |
| 04-12 10:27 | Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0339999971 | $11.20 |
| 04-12 10:26 | Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0549999985 | $33.60 |
| 04-12 10:26 | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0709999981 | $33.60 |
| 04-12 10:25 | Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0859999966 | $22.40 |
| 04-12 10:25 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0919999976 | $33.60 |
| 04-12 10:24 | Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.114 | $22.40 |
| 04-12 10:24 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1539999979 | $56.00 |