PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

MarcusAguilar4999

0xf23efbcedfd607fffda3536fd038e11b148aaec3

Realised P&L
$662.99
Volume
$85.8k
Markets traded
154
Open portfolio
$1.9k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.8%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded154
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration20.0% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)38.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration75.9% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
04-12 01:12Will Trump post "Peter" or "Magyar" on Truth Social this week?SELL0.51$194.31
04-11 10:39Will Trump post "Peter" or "Magyar" on Truth Social this week?BUY0.89$339.09
04-11 08:39Will Albania advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?SELL0.32$83.52
04-11 08:37Will Albania advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?SELL0.32$226.24
04-11 06:28Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by June 30?SELL0.75$29.25
04-10 16:54Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by June 30?BUY0.75$29.25
04-10 13:52Will Albania advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?BUY0.33$319.44
04-09 14:21OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?SELL0.39$111.54
04-09 14:20OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?SELL0.39$117.78
04-09 14:19OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?SELL0.39$118.95
04-07 09:03OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?BUY0.5$446.50
03-31 01:49Will the total number of TSA passengers for March 30 be between 2,400,000 and 2,600,000?SELL0.51$247.86
03-31 01:47Will the total number of TSA passengers for March 30 be between 2,400,000 and 2,600,000?SELL0.51$54.57
03-31 01:44Will the total number of TSA passengers for March 30 be between 2,400,000 and 2,600,000?SELL0.51$144.84
03-30 08:16Will the total number of TSA passengers for March 30 be between 2,400,000 and 2,600,000?BUY0.69$605.13