xc494
0xf159c72f60c365eac8efbf3fed7b62f5ac268822
- Realised P&L
- $-600.07
- Volume
- $16.4k
- Markets traded
- 99
- Open portfolio
- $67.92
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded99
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration7.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration41.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on August 6? · No | 0.999 | 1.000 | $27.99 | +$0.01 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on August 6? · Yes | 0.999 | 1.000 | $19.99 | +$0.01 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on August 7? · Yes | 0.998 | 0.997 | $19.94 | −$0.02 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on July 12? · Yes | 0.017 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.02 |
| Dota 2: Team Liquid vs MOUZ (BO3) · Team Liquid | 0.500 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$505.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.57at 0.960Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals?
- +$0.21at 0.998Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February?
- +$0.12at 0.996Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March?
- +$0.11at 0.997Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in April?
- +$0.10at 0.999Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-04 15:45 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on August 5? | BUY | 0.998 | $9.98 |
| 08-04 15:45 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on August 5? | BUY | 0.999 | $9.99 |
| 08-04 15:45 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on August 5? | BUY | 0.999 | $19.98 |
| 08-04 15:45 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on August 7? | BUY | 0.998 | $19.96 |
| 08-04 15:45 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on August 6? | BUY | 0.999 | $27.97 |
| 08-04 15:44 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on August 6? | BUY | 0.999 | $19.98 |
| 07-21 15:05 | Will XRP reach $3.00 in July? | BUY | 0.999 | $19.98 |
| 07-11 14:49 | Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.99 | $7.92 |
| 07-11 14:48 | Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.995 | $19.90 |
| 07-11 14:48 | Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.998 | $19.96 |
| 07-11 14:48 | Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.998 | $19.96 |
| 07-11 14:48 | Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $19.98 |
| 07-11 14:48 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on July 12? | BUY | 0.017 | $0.94 |
| 07-11 14:45 | Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from July 10 to July 17, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $19.98 |
| 06-19 06:33 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C or higher on June 20? | BUY | 0.999 | $9.99 |