Calabir
0xec3f1bff7d1317b243c0d2b34ccd9376d4b459ad
- Realised P&L
- $-2.30
- Volume
- $89.05
- Markets traded
- 11
- Open portfolio
- $57.59
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded11
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- Not knownProfit concentration—
- No settled positions sampled.
- Not knownSettled sample0 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- ClearOpen concentration22.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit Japan? · Yes | 0.800 | 0.855 | $12.82 | +$0.82 |
| Will Trump say "No No No" during remarks in Las Vegas? · Yes | 0.410 | 0.325 | $8.72 | −$2.28 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET · Down | 0.800 | 1.000 | $6.25 | +$1.25 |
| Will SpaceX say "Data Center" 5+ times during earnings call? · Yes | 0.980 | 1.000 | $6.12 | +$0.12 |
| Will Trump say "Beautiful" 15+ times during remarks in Las Vegas? · No | 0.620 | 0.585 | $5.66 | −$0.34 |
| Will Vinicius Junior stay at Real Madrid? · Yes | 0.740 | 0.795 | $5.37 | +$0.37 |
| Will SpaceX say "Launch" 10+ times during earnings call? · Yes | 0.970 | 1.000 | $5.15 | +$0.15 |
| Will Trump say "Hell" 8+ times during remarks in Las Vegas? · No | 0.580 | 0.545 | $4.70 | −$0.30 |
| Will Trump say "Six Seven" during remarks in Las Vegas? · No | 0.870 | 0.885 | $1.02 | +$0.02 |
| Will Marcelo attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding? · Yes | 0.710 | 0.675 | $0.95 | −$0.05 |
| Will Trump say "Tax" 30+ times during remarks in Las Vegas? · No | 0.480 | 0.395 | $0.82 | −$0.18 |
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-04 20:51 | Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit Japan? | BUY | 0.8 | $12.00 |
| 08-04 20:49 | Will Marcelo attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding? | BUY | 0.7099994391 | $1.00 |
| 08-04 20:49 | Will Vinicius Junior stay at Real Madrid? | BUY | 0.7399998964 | $5.00 |
| 08-04 20:48 | Will SpaceX say "Data Center" 5+ times during earnings call? | BUY | 0.9799999902 | $6.00 |
| 08-04 20:48 | Will SpaceX say "Launch" 10+ times during earnings call? | BUY | 0.9699999981 | $5.00 |
| 08-04 20:47 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET | BUY | 0.8 | $5.00 |
| 08-04 20:47 | Will Trump say "Six Seven" during remarks in Las Vegas? | BUY | 0.8699992344 | $1.00 |
| 08-04 20:47 | Will Trump say "No No No" during remarks in Las Vegas? | BUY | 0.4099999825 | $11.00 |
| 08-04 20:47 | Will Trump say "Beautiful" 15+ times during remarks in Las Vegas? | BUY | 0.6199999835 | $6.00 |
| 08-04 20:46 | Will Trump say "Hell" 8+ times during remarks in Las Vegas? | BUY | 0.5799999954 | $5.00 |
| 08-04 20:46 | Will Trump say "Tax" 30+ times during remarks in Las Vegas? | BUY | 0.4799998272 | $1.00 |