igliberg
0xebe3b65bf55e4520c0857f96bfc7d1529e5468ad
- Realised P&L
- $-57.09
- Volume
- $8.3k
- Markets traded
- 72
- Open portfolio
- $6.44
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded72
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration10.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)70.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration38.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 2026 be the fifth-hottest year on record? · No | 0.998 | 0.997 | $2.50 | −$0.00 |
| Will 2026 rank as the sixth-hottest year on record or lower? · No | 0.984 | 0.991 | $2.01 | +$0.01 |
| Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? · Yes | 0.640 | 0.420 | $1.31 | −$0.69 |
| Will Jensen Huang be richest person on December 31? · Yes | 0.024 | 0.005 | $0.62 | −$2.38 |
| Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on March 24? · Up | 0.048 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$20.73at 0.491Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$3.23at 0.310Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?
- +$2.50at 0.800Solana above $145 on October 11?
- +$2.31at 0.650Pavel Durov leaves France in 2024?
- +$1.69at 0.640Ethereum Up or Down - November 28, 4AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-12 14:22 | Will 2026 be the fifth-hottest year on record? | BUY | 0.998 | $2.50 |
| 07-12 14:21 | Will 2026 rank as the sixth-hottest year on record or lower? | BUY | 0.984 | $2.00 |
| 07-12 14:21 | Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? | BUY | 0.64 | $2.00 |
| 07-12 14:21 | Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | SELL | 0.981 | $2.00 |
| 05-16 10:36 | Zendaya confirmed pregnant by June 30? | SELL | 0.95 | $2.96 |
| 05-16 10:31 | Zendaya confirmed pregnant by June 30? | BUY | 0.96 | $3.00 |
| 05-16 10:31 | Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | BUY | 0.9789999408 | $2.00 |
| 04-20 16:46 | Will Elon Musk be richest person on December 31? | SELL | 0.9 | $5.00 |
| 04-20 16:46 | Will Jeff Bezos be richest person on December 31? | SELL | 0.009 | $2.57 |
| 03-24 18:06 | Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on March 24? | BUY | 0.0475959205 | $1.00 |
| 03-24 18:05 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 24? | BUY | 0.719999808 | $3.00 |
| 03-24 18:05 | Will Jensen Huang be richest person on December 31? | BUY | 0.025 | $1.00 |
| 03-24 18:04 | Will Jeff Bezos be richest person on December 31? | BUY | 0.007 | $2.00 |
| 03-24 18:04 | Will Jensen Huang be richest person on December 31? | BUY | 0.0239158926 | $2.00 |
| 03-24 18:04 | Will Elon Musk be richest person on December 31? | BUY | 0.899999892 | $5.00 |