thegamblor69
0xe71d94b0c62faafdc88e744c96ad82c1646b7359
- Realised P&L
- $-3.0k
- Volume
- $4.60M
- Markets traded
- 780
- Open portfolio
- $224.15
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded780
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration15.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration4.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$43.97at 0.130Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?
- +$34.66at 0.760US forces enter Iran by December 31?
- +$21.50at 0.317Will Argentina win on 2026-07-15?
- +$18.10at 0.580Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?
- +$17.16at 0.466Will Norway win on 2026-06-30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-03 15:28 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.7599999696 | $5.00 |
| 08-03 15:27 | Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31? | SELL | 0.63 | $7.26 |
| 08-02 14:31 | Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31? | BUY | 0.6499999935 | $10.00 |
| 08-02 14:31 | Foreign intervention in Gaza by September 30? | BUY | 0.8199999672 | $10.00 |
| 08-02 14:29 | NBA: Stephen Curry to leave Warriors? | SELL | 0.955 | $10.20 |
| 08-02 14:28 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? | SELL | 0.89 | $10.47 |
| 08-01 14:45 | Spain accuses Morocco of facilitating Ceuta migrant wave by August 31? | BUY | 0.7799998596 | $5.00 |
| 08-01 14:44 | The Polymarket Classic: Winner | BUY | 0.8 | $5.00 |
| 07-31 16:00 | Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027? | BUY | 0.9019998427 | $5.00 |
| 07-31 16:00 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | BUY | 0.9869998253 | $5.00 |
| 07-31 15:59 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.7599998541 | $5.00 |
| 07-29 16:38 | Will Vinicius Junior join Arsenal? | BUY | 0.8889999943 | $5.00 |
| 07-28 14:55 | NBA: Stephen Curry to leave Warriors? | BUY | 0.936 | $10.00 |
| 07-28 14:55 | Will Roberto Mancini be the next head coach of the Italian National Soccer Team? | BUY | 0.9909999332 | $5.00 |
| 07-28 14:55 | Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | SELL | 0.986 | $8.91 |