Octavio1000
0xe4febebbd869ac471a2eeea6fabfe585b4d57d10
- Realised P&L
- $-680.75
- Volume
- $5.7k
- Markets traded
- 9
- Open portfolio
- $525.63
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-12.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded9
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration57.2% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample2 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration90.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · No | 0.637 | 0.345 | $475.71 | −$402.43 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · No | 0.362 | 0.155 | $42.80 | −$57.20 |
| Will Geraldo Alckmin finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.008 | 0.002 | $2.77 | −$12.22 |
| Will Fernando Haddad finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.052 | 0.004 | $2.70 | −$32.30 |
| Will Camilo Santana finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.069 | 0.004 | $1.51 | −$28.49 |
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.057 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$45.55 |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? · No | 0.488 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$106.33 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.44at 0.850US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?
- +$1.08at 0.899Internet access restored in Iran by Friday?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-28 02:36 | Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0569999987 | $45.55 |
| 05-05 17:18 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.64 | $34.00 |
| 05-05 17:12 | Will Fernando Haddad finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.0518617666 | $35.00 |
| 05-05 17:12 | Will Camilo Santana finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.0694200477 | $30.00 |
| 05-05 17:11 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.3621571233 | $100.00 |
| 05-05 17:10 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.64 | $600.00 |
| 05-05 15:01 | Will Geraldo Alckmin finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.0081117913 | $15.00 |
| 05-05 14:40 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.64 | $198.02 |
| 04-30 02:23 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.6299999954 | $22.00 |
| 04-29 00:22 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.62 | $2.48 |
| 04-29 00:19 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.62 | $1.24 |
| 03-25 20:38 | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | BUY | 0.4199999933 | $35.30 |
| 03-23 20:42 | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | BUY | 0.5299999966 | $71.03 |
| 03-23 20:34 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.5899999915 | $17.39 |
| 01-15 21:05 | Internet access restored in Iran by Friday? | BUY | 0.8989999911 | $9.59 |