Notafan
0xe27a87296f49beb687376242b320bd84041cc965
- Realised P&L
- $-10.77
- Volume
- $2.1k
- Markets traded
- 14
- Open portfolio
- $27.44
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded14
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration37.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample8 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)75.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration43.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on August 9? · No | 0.452 | 0.535 | $11.84 | +$1.84 |
| Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on August 9? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.330 | $7.86 | +$2.86 |
| Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on August 9? · Yes | 0.030 | 0.045 | $7.50 | +$2.50 |
| Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on August 1? · No | 0.690 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.90 |
| Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on August 6? · Yes | 0.535 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 7°C on August 5? · Yes | 0.024 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on August 8? · Yes | 0.025 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$12.22at 0.020Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on August 7?
- +$9.08at 0.030Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on August 8?
- +$7.41at 0.570Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on August 8?
- +$3.42at 0.417Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on August 7?
- +$0.09at 0.580Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on August 7?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-08 08:21 | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on August 9? | BUY | 0.209999974 | $5.00 |
| 08-08 08:20 | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on August 8? | SELL | 0.999 | $16.99 |
| 08-08 08:17 | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on August 9? | BUY | 0.0299999943 | $5.00 |
| 08-08 08:17 | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on August 9? | BUY | 0.451675606 | $10.00 |
| 08-07 23:10 | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on August 8? | SELL | 0.51 | $5.00 |
| 08-07 23:10 | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on August 8? | SELL | 0.78 | $0.41 |
| 08-07 22:36 | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on August 8? | SELL | 0.098807977 | $13.08 |
| 08-07 08:02 | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on August 8? | BUY | 0.5099999796 | $5.00 |
| 08-07 08:01 | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on August 8? | BUY | 0.0302154741 | $4.00 |
| 08-07 00:44 | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on August 8? | BUY | 0.0246198692 | $10.00 |
| 08-07 00:43 | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on August 8? | BUY | 0.5699999966 | $10.00 |
| 08-07 00:29 | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on August 7? | SELL | 0.37 | $2.27 |
| 08-07 00:16 | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on August 7? | BUY | 0.3718454486 | $2.28 |
| 08-07 00:09 | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on August 7? | SELL | 0.7566722269 | $9.07 |
| 08-07 00:08 | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on August 7? | SELL | 0.05054355 | $20.22 |