aqua54
0xe1264cdeda1960ede52bf83be9a978302188a452
- Realised P&L
- $-865.76
- Volume
- $72.3k
- Markets traded
- 685
- Open portfolio
- $4.81
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded685
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration21.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)76.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration45.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$45.56at 0.180Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104K and $106K on June 6?
- +$30.24at 0.569Bitcoin Up or Down on May 20?
- +$25.71at 0.280Will the price of Solana be between $150 and $160 on June 6?
- +$20.00at 0.500Ethereum Up or Down on June 3?
- +$19.22at 0.510ETH/BTC Up or Down on May 20?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-14 07:44 | Anyone charged for doxing Delta Force commander heading Maduro grab by March 31? | SELL | 0.966 | $2.05 |
| 03-14 07:44 | Tua Tagovailoa traded by next season? | SELL | 0.853 | $2.00 |
| 02-13 02:56 | The Bondi Parlay (Feb 27) | BUY | 0.9299997768 | $2.00 |
| 02-06 03:01 | Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 | SELL | 0.57 | $1.99 |
| 02-06 03:00 | Will Revolut launch a USD stablecoin in 2026? | SELL | 0.57 | $1.90 |
| 01-23 22:20 | Trump approval Up or Down this week? | BUY | 0.5799999014 | $2.00 |
| 01-23 22:20 | Will Trump sue NYT/Siena over polling by Feb 28? | BUY | 0.6499999025 | $2.00 |
| 01-23 22:20 | Bad Bunny wears a dress or skirt at the Big Game? | BUY | 0.8799999883 | $3.00 |
| 01-19 14:56 | Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? | SELL | 0.963 | $2.00 |
| 01-19 14:56 | Honus Wagner card sale >$2 million? | SELL | 0.93 | $2.00 |
| 01-19 14:56 | Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? | SELL | 0.85 | $2.02 |
| 01-13 07:03 | MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase January 13-19? | BUY | 0.78 | $2.00 |
| 01-13 07:02 | Will Saks file Chapter 11 Bankruptcy by January 31? | BUY | 0.9199999816 | $2.00 |
| 01-13 07:02 | Honus Wagner card sale >$2 million? | BUY | 0.9299999814 | $2.00 |
| 01-13 07:02 | Ackman vs. S&P - January | SELL | 0.8 | $2.00 |