PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

aqua54

0xe1264cdeda1960ede52bf83be9a978302188a452

Realised P&L
$-865.76
Volume
$72.3k
Markets traded
685
Open portfolio
$4.81

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-1.2%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded685
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration21.9% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)76.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration45.2% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the US embassy in Venezuela reopen by March 31? · Yes0.9201.000$2.17+$0.17
Natural Disaster in 2026? · Yes0.5100.225$0.88$1.12
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? · Yes0.7900.265$0.67$1.33
Justin Aguiar convicted of sexual assault before 2027? · Yes0.7300.190$0.52$1.48
Cap on gambling loss deductions repealed before 2027? · Yes0.8600.180$0.42$1.58
Will Tarcisio de Frietas qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? · Yes0.7400.009$0.15$11.85
Will Sarah Anthony win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? · Yes0.9980.001$0.00$5.00
Will the Nepalese government fall by September 30? · Yes0.0170.000$0.00$1.00
Will Trump say "Horror show" this week? (September 22-28) · Yes0.8200.000$0.00$1.00
QBgami in Week 1 of NFL Playoffs? · No0.9500.000$0.00$2.00
Will Vegas Matt be profitable: Week of October 12 · Yes0.9500.000$0.00$2.00
Scorigami in NFL Week 3? · Yes0.5000.000$0.00$1.00
Will Ferrari have the highest constructor score at the 2025 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix? · Yes0.9900.000$0.00$1.00
Will McLaren have the third-highest constructor score at the 2025 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix? · Yes0.9850.000$0.00$2.00
Polish strike on Belarus by September 30? · Yes0.0040.000$0.00$1.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
03-14 07:44Anyone charged for doxing Delta Force commander heading Maduro grab by March 31?SELL0.966$2.05
03-14 07:44Tua Tagovailoa traded by next season?SELL0.853$2.00
02-13 02:56The Bondi Parlay (Feb 27)BUY0.9299997768$2.00
02-06 03:01Nothing Ever Happens: 2026SELL0.57$1.99
02-06 03:00Will Revolut launch a USD stablecoin in 2026?SELL0.57$1.90
01-23 22:20Trump approval Up or Down this week?BUY0.5799999014$2.00
01-23 22:20Will Trump sue NYT/Siena over polling by Feb 28?BUY0.6499999025$2.00
01-23 22:20Bad Bunny wears a dress or skirt at the Big Game?BUY0.8799999883$3.00
01-19 14:56Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31?SELL0.963$2.00
01-19 14:56Honus Wagner card sale >$2 million?SELL0.93$2.00
01-19 14:56Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?SELL0.85$2.02
01-13 07:03MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase January 13-19?BUY0.78$2.00
01-13 07:02Will Saks file Chapter 11 Bankruptcy by January 31?BUY0.9199999816$2.00
01-13 07:02Honus Wagner card sale >$2 million?BUY0.9299999814$2.00
01-13 07:02Ackman vs. S&P - JanuarySELL0.8$2.00