0xdf938cd193d02d421a830b94d85a9ebf2ec4a820
- Realised P&L
- $-29.17
- Volume
- $114.95
- Markets traded
- 8
- Open portfolio
- $20.84
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-25.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded8
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration69.4% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample4 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration89.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? · No | 0.599 | 0.400 | $18.58 | −$9.23 |
| GOP uses 'Nuclear Option' to break filibuster by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.406 | 0.115 | $0.84 | −$2.12 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · Yes | 0.108 | 0.040 | $0.79 | −$1.38 |
| Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.125 | $0.63 | −$0.57 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.51at 0.870Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?
- +$0.22at 0.930S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 10?
- +$-1.08at 0.180Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?
- +$-15.60at 0.790US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-20 16:48 | Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? | BUY | 0.18 | $1.08 |
| 03-20 16:28 | Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? | BUY | 0.24 | $1.20 |
| 03-20 16:20 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.109 | $1.09 |
| 03-20 14:52 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.108 | $1.08 |
| 03-19 21:44 | GOP uses 'Nuclear Option' to break filibuster by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4299999075 | $1.86 |
| 03-19 19:17 | US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | BUY | 0.7899999965 | $15.60 |
| 03-19 17:00 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? | BUY | 0.8699998194 | $3.42 |
| 03-19 16:46 | GOP uses 'Nuclear Option' to break filibuster by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3699999092 | $1.10 |
| 03-11 00:54 | Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.5899999747 | $3.96 |
| 03-11 00:54 | Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.6 | $13.17 |
| 03-11 00:54 | Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.6 | $10.68 |
| 03-10 23:07 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 10? | SELL | 0.999 | $3.25 |
| 03-10 19:50 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 10? | BUY | 0.9299999969 | $3.03 |