pollybott
0xdbc45db6ba0618e6182109854e8d19a77b4f4347
- Realised P&L
- $316.36
- Volume
- $396.7k
- Markets traded
- 895
- Open portfolio
- $722.37
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded895
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration27.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration32.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$266.45at 0.520US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14
- +$236.07at 0.675Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?
- +$218.58at 0.907US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
- +$175.99at 0.006MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
- +$129.79at 0.117Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-04 19:13 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? | SELL | 0.626 | $3.82 |
| 08-04 18:53 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? | SELL | 0.043 | $0.93 |
| 08-04 18:29 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.589999931 | $2.31 |
| 08-04 18:28 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.5939999984 | $11.66 |
| 08-04 18:26 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.6269999828 | $9.88 |
| 08-04 18:21 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.6129999205 | $1.79 |
| 08-04 18:21 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.6149998901 | $1.79 |
| 08-04 18:13 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.6069999874 | $7.37 |
| 08-04 18:12 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.6089999798 | $7.37 |
| 08-04 18:02 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.5779999985 | $12.00 |
| 08-04 18:02 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.5779999985 | $12.00 |
| 08-04 17:41 | Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? | BUY | 0.6 | $12.00 |
| 08-04 17:41 | Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? | BUY | 0.6 | $12.00 |
| 08-04 16:16 | Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 August 3-9? | BUY | 0.022999978 | $1.01 |
| 08-04 16:16 | Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 August 3-9? | BUY | 0.022999978 | $1.01 |