Manulu
0xda4ce9a3f57b619f3fd2da95c637076464e103e1
- Realised P&L
- $3.95
- Volume
- $721.38
- Markets traded
- 14
- Open portfolio
- $103.70
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded14
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration40.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample8 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration58.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13? · Yes | 0.870 | 0.875 | $60.34 | +$0.34 |
| Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.315 | $35.44 | −$0.56 |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Friedrich Merz by August 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.634 | 0.355 | $5.60 | −$4.40 |
| Will Anthropic IPO by September 15, 2026? · Yes | 0.254 | 0.009 | $2.32 | −$59.59 |
| Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET · Down | 0.110 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$30.29at 0.767Will Spain win on 2026-07-02?
- +$17.73at 0.220Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET
- +$14.11at 0.415Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET
- +$8.38at 0.370Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET
- +$2.69at 0.650Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 05:59 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Friedrich Merz by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6341546907 | $10.00 |
| 08-02 05:56 | Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13? | BUY | 0.8699999993 | $60.00 |
| 08-02 05:51 | Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31? | BUY | 0.32 | $36.00 |
| 07-02 17:08 | Will Spain win on 2026-07-02? | BUY | 0.7674999982 | $100.00 |
| 06-26 18:24 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET | BUY | 0.2199999727 | $5.00 |
| 06-17 03:47 | Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? | BUY | 0.2 | $1.00 |
| 06-09 04:21 | Will Anthropic IPO by September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.1499999887 | $10.00 |
| 06-09 04:21 | Will Anthropic IPO by September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.149999976 | $5.00 |
| 06-09 04:21 | Will Anthropic IPO by September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.1499998875 | $1.00 |
| 06-03 19:58 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET | BUY | 0.1099999815 | $5.00 |
| 06-03 17:14 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET | BUY | 0.6499999675 | $5.00 |
| 06-03 15:00 | Will Anthropic IPO by September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.3586115185 | $35.00 |
| 06-03 12:00 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET | SELL | 0.99 | $13.37 |
| 06-03 11:55 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET | BUY | 0.3699999674 | $5.00 |
| 06-03 10:50 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET | SELL | 0.99 | $5.89 |