otclit
0xd927c44babc22d3fec76fcfbfca5c5f577bbc3dd
- Realised P&L
- $-5.00
- Volume
- $33.0k
- Markets traded
- 106
- Open portfolio
- $90.72
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded106
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration5.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)98.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration27.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will MiniMax be the #2 AI lab at the end of August 2026? · No | 0.998 | 0.996 | $24.94 | −$0.06 |
| Will Xiaomi have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of August 2026? · No | 0.999 | 0.998 | $22.97 | −$0.03 |
| Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of August 2026? · No | 0.999 | 0.998 | $20.98 | −$0.02 |
| Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? · No | 0.999 | 0.999 | $19.99 | −$0.01 |
| Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.962 | 0.984 | $1.85 | +$0.04 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.62at 0.630Rams vs. Seahawks
- +$1.48at 0.810Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
- +$0.95at 0.850Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
- +$0.57at 0.920Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?
- +$0.34at 0.984Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-04 06:04 | Will MiniMax be the #2 AI lab at the end of August 2026? | BUY | 0.998 | $25.00 |
| 08-04 06:04 | Will Xiaomi have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of August 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $23.00 |
| 08-04 06:04 | Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $20.00 |
| 08-04 06:03 | Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of August 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $21.00 |
| 07-18 07:11 | Will Ethereum reach $2,200 July 13-19? | BUY | 0.999 | $24.00 |
| 07-18 07:11 | Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 July 13-19? | BUY | 0.999 | $25.00 |
| 07-02 02:17 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on July 3? | BUY | 0.999 | $15.00 |
| 07-02 02:17 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on July 2? | BUY | 0.997 | $11.00 |
| 07-02 02:16 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $50,000 on July 5? | BUY | 0.998 | $5.00 |
| 07-02 02:15 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $50,000 on July 4? | BUY | 0.998 | $7.00 |
| 07-02 02:15 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on July 3? | BUY | 0.999 | $6.00 |
| 07-02 02:15 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on July 2? | BUY | 0.9909999994 | $5.00 |
| 07-02 02:15 | Will XRP dip to $0.20 in July? | BUY | 0.998 | $10.00 |
| 07-02 02:14 | Will Solana dip to $10 in July? | BUY | 0.998 | $10.00 |
| 07-02 02:14 | Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in July? | BUY | 0.9939999998 | $10.00 |