ikarotwo
0xd8a386091a1b03693fc7d4b485716a3aff136034
- Realised P&L
- $-15.72
- Volume
- $20.7k
- Markets traded
- 741
- Open portfolio
- $41.70
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded741
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration8.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration9.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$43.09at 0.217Bitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET
- +$41.25at 0.450Bitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET
- +$41.25at 0.450Bitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET
- +$41.15at 0.451Bitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET
- +$41.05at 0.453Bitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-06 22:56 | Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on August 6? | SELL | 0.992 | $14.88 |
| 08-06 19:18 | Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on August 6? | SELL | 0.99 | $4.95 |
| 08-06 16:41 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on August 6? | SELL | 0.999 | $5.00 |
| 08-06 16:32 | Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on August 6? | SELL | 0.999 | $19.61 |
| 08-06 15:54 | Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on August 6? | SELL | 0.99 | $0.35 |
| 08-06 13:57 | Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on August 6? | SELL | 0.999 | $5.00 |
| 08-06 13:57 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on August 6? | SELL | 0.999 | $5.00 |
| 08-06 13:57 | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on August 6? | SELL | 0.999 | $19.98 |
| 08-06 13:57 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on August 6? | SELL | 0.998 | $14.97 |
| 08-05 15:48 | Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on August 5? | SELL | 0.03 | $0.20 |
| 08-05 15:48 | Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on August 5? | SELL | 0.04 | $0.20 |
| 08-05 15:46 | Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on August 5? | SELL | 0.03 | $0.13 |
| 08-05 15:46 | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on August 6? | SELL | 0.02 | $0.10 |
| 08-05 15:46 | Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on August 5? | SELL | 0.02 | $0.10 |
| 07-20 13:52 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET | BUY | 0.12 | $1.08 |