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0xd81b0a2739e80c2c704fd4ee7689c4d73d78d1ac
- Realised P&L
- $-32.63
- Volume
- $21.6k
- Markets traded
- 103
- Open portfolio
- $65.62
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded103
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration11.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)98.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration34.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on August 7? · Yes | 0.999 | 0.996 | $22.92 | −$0.08 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on August 5? · No | 0.999 | 0.997 | $20.96 | −$0.04 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on August 4? · Yes | 0.998 | 0.997 | $19.98 | −$0.02 |
| Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · No | 0.995 | 0.993 | $1.75 | −$0.00 |
| Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 January 26-1? · No | 0.996 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$16.00 |
| US government shutdown Saturday? · No | 0.770 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.00 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? · No | 0.800 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.76 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.34at 0.930Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?
- +$0.33at 0.968Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January?
- +$0.32at 0.969Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?
- +$0.28at 0.980Will Bitcoin reach $106,000 January 19-25?
- +$0.13at 0.987Bikinis back on X by January 16?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-03 04:31 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on August 7? | BUY | 0.999 | $23.00 |
| 08-03 04:30 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on August 5? | BUY | 0.9989048661 | $21.00 |
| 08-03 04:30 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on August 4? | BUY | 0.998 | $20.00 |
| 07-15 06:18 | Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,300 in July? | BUY | 0.999 | $19.00 |
| 07-15 06:17 | Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $16.00 |
| 07-15 06:17 | Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $15.00 |
| 07-15 06:17 | Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $14.00 |
| 07-03 03:21 | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $50,000 on July 6? | BUY | 0.999 | $5.00 |
| 07-03 03:21 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $50,000 and $52,000 on July 5? | BUY | 0.999 | $6.00 |
| 07-03 03:20 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on July 4? | BUY | 0.998 | $5.00 |
| 07-03 03:20 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on July 3? | BUY | 0.9969998603 | $6.00 |
| 07-03 03:20 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $50,000 on July 6? | BUY | 0.998 | $11.00 |
| 07-03 03:20 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on July 5? | BUY | 0.998 | $8.00 |
| 07-03 03:19 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on July 4? | BUY | 0.9979998651 | $7.00 |
| 07-03 03:19 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on July 3? | BUY | 0.9969998603 | $6.00 |