0xd6d548afece12d6a7d0956f43d0e76f2ed14f2c6
- Realised P&L
- $-1.5k
- Volume
- $150.7k
- Markets traded
- 2,285
- Open portfolio
- $2.49
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded2,285
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration44.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration58.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Esther Charlestin win the 2026 Vermont Governor Democratic primary election? · Yes | 0.036 | 0.003 | $1.40 | −$15.37 |
| New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? · Yes | 0.470 | 0.500 | $0.50 | +$0.03 |
| Will FLING win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election? · Yes | 0.080 | 0.052 | $0.46 | −$0.24 |
| Will Anne Parelkar be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas? · Yes | 0.054 | 0.001 | $0.03 | −$2.84 |
| Will Michael Soetaert be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas? · Yes | 0.062 | 0.001 | $0.01 | −$1.47 |
| Will Sharice Davids be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas? · Yes | 0.218 | 0.001 | $0.00 | −$0.87 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$572.75at 0.219Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C or higher on April 3?
- +$410.27at 0.367Will John Ternus be the next CEO of Apple?
- +$234.96at 0.374Hawks vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5
- +$114.08at 0.080Will Trump say "NATO" during Address to the Nation?
- +$114.08at 0.080Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-16 20:12 | Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays | BUY | 0.42 | $2.10 |
| 05-16 20:08 | Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates | BUY | 0.35 | $7.70 |
| 05-16 20:07 | Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals | BUY | 0.48 | $14.88 |
| 05-16 19:43 | Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers | BUY | 0.92 | $9.20 |
| 05-16 19:15 | Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies | BUY | 0.54 | $14.58 |
| 05-16 18:45 | Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals | BUY | 0.49 | $14.70 |
| 05-16 18:38 | Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Magic vs Cyber Hero (BO3) - MLBB Continental Championships Regular Season | BUY | 0.99 | $4.95 |
| 05-16 17:48 | Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty League Major 3 Playoffs | BUY | 0.87 | $4.35 |
| 05-16 16:44 | Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Yandex vs Verso Time (BO3) - MLBB Continental Championships Regular Season | BUY | 0.99 | $4.95 |
| 05-16 14:59 | Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers | BUY | 0.48 | $14.88 |
| 05-16 14:05 | Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta Braves | BUY | 0.5499999944 | $14.82 |
| 05-16 12:59 | Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox | BUY | 0.5 | $15.00 |
| 05-16 12:40 | StarCraft II: Clem vs Rogue (BO5) - RSL Revival Playoffs | BUY | 0.99 | $4.95 |
| 05-16 11:33 | San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners | BUY | 0.59 | $14.75 |
| 05-16 11:33 | San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners | BUY | 0.59 | $9.44 |