M4rch1
0xd59bd32b1e2b753b0d18e5af38e2e99993d5d1ac
- Realised P&L
- $-861.25
- Volume
- $43.6k
- Markets traded
- 110
- Open portfolio
- $430.00
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded110
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration30.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.715 | 0.880 | $132.00 | +$24.75 |
| Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? · No | 0.522 | 0.825 | $123.75 | +$45.50 |
| Will pump.fun buybacks hit $500M by December 31? · Yes | 0.435 | 0.365 | $73.00 | −$14.00 |
| Will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $6B in 2026? · No | 0.690 | 0.610 | $61.00 | −$8.00 |
| Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win LoL Worlds 2026? · Yes | 0.680 | 0.655 | $32.75 | −$1.25 |
| Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.075 | $7.50 | −$17.50 |
| Will Spain win on 2026-07-14? · No | 0.705 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$70.50 |
| Will Spain vs. Belgium end in a draw? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$24.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$182.00at 0.090Pump.fun revenue above $25M in April?
- +$148.78at 0.101Will muddyrc win the Genesis Cup?
- +$143.21at 0.558Will the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release?
- +$117.00at 0.512Bitcoin Up or Down - December 1, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET
- +$102.86at 0.816Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-06 21:06 | Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? | SELL | 0.250675 | $25.07 |
| 05-30 18:59 | Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? | SELL | 0.56 | $56.00 |
| 01-30 10:15 | Trump out as President before 2027? | BUY | 0.85 | $85.00 |
| 01-03 18:02 | Will 'Arc Raiders' win Game of the Year in the 2025 Steam Awards? | SELL | 0.01 | $21.55 |
| 01-03 18:01 | Will 'Arc Raiders' win Game of the Year in the 2025 Steam Awards? | BUY | 0.4988476619 | $1000.00 |
| 01-03 17:34 | Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? | SELL | 0.27 | $27.00 |
| 01-03 17:33 | Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? | BUY | 0.29 | $29.00 |
| 12-30 21:48 | Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? | BUY | 0.96 | $700.00 |
| 12-30 11:41 | Will Battlefield 6 win Better With Friends at the 2025 Steam Awards? | SELL | 0.205 | $4.10 |
| 12-26 17:55 | Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.08 | $16.00 |
| 12-07 15:39 | Bitcoin Up or Down - December 7, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET | BUY | 0.48 | $48.00 |
| 12-04 00:22 | Will muddyrc win the Genesis Cup? | BUY | 0.1499999976 | $50.00 |
| 12-04 00:21 | Will muddyrc win the Genesis Cup? | BUY | 0.15 | $30.00 |
| 12-03 15:46 | Bitcoin Up or Down - December 3, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET | SELL | 0.7641176471 | $25.98 |
| 12-03 14:30 | Bitcoin Up or Down - December 3, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET | BUY | 0.296 | $29.60 |