michaelB
0xd53b2cd1f1b681de5160f43d02a6df508906fc94
- Realised P&L
- $-4.5k
- Volume
- $272.6k
- Markets traded
- 1,098
- Open portfolio
- $0.00
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,098
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration43.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$966.59at 0.236Will the New Democrats win the second most seats in the next Ontario Parliamentary election?
- +$808.74at 0.060Government shutdown on Saturday?
- +$543.02at 0.378Will MrBeast's next video get between 47 and 48 million views on day 4?
- +$437.23at 0.298Will the 2026 Big Game be the most viewed Big Game ever?
- +$309.59at 0.253Will Donald Trump be shown 0-2 times at the World Cup Final?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-09 02:02 | Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17? | SELL | 0.19 | $38.00 |
| 08-08 00:26 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 7, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET | BUY | 0.98 | $294.00 |
| 07-28 16:33 | Will Trump say "Hell" 2+ times during tribute to Lindsey Graham? | SELL | 0.25 | $18.55 |
| 07-27 22:30 | Will Roberto Mancini be the next head coach of the Italian National Soccer Team? | SELL | 0.44999725 | $18.00 |
| 07-25 22:26 | Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on July 25? | SELL | 0.999 | $99.90 |
| 07-25 22:26 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on July 25? | SELL | 0.99 | $11.88 |
| 07-25 20:21 | Will "Minions & Monsters" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 10m? | SELL | 0.35 | $3.50 |
| 07-25 13:52 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on July 25? | SELL | 0.999 | $104.50 |
| 07-25 02:23 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on July 25? | BUY | 0.8604098869 | $90.00 |
| 07-23 21:31 | Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on July 23? | BUY | 0.6430458221 | $7.16 |
| 07-23 17:14 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET | BUY | 0.5099999988 | $25.00 |
| 07-23 17:11 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 23, 2026? | SELL | 0.1469476391 | $20.57 |
| 07-22 22:30 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on July 22? | SELL | 0.968 | $47.04 |
| 07-21 18:08 | Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" score at least 95 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | SELL | 0.0843538278 | $35.26 |
| 07-21 12:53 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on July 21? | BUY | 0.21 | $52.50 |