22BB
0xd3b50fd651c0f39e302627b962441c61a9d7f7f0
- Realised P&L
- $-12.5k
- Volume
- $552.5k
- Markets traded
- 324
- Open portfolio
- $447.41
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded324
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration15.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)98.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration51.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 32°C on August 6? · No | 0.994 | 1.000 | $230.00 | +$1.31 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 30°C on August 7? · No | 0.980 | 0.990 | $217.40 | +$2.20 |
| Bitcoin above 62,800 on June 19, 9AM ET? · No | 0.988 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$119.96 |
| Will the announcers say "Trump" during the Scotland vs Brazil FIFA World Cup Match? · No | 0.943 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$136.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.5kat 0.711Will the Government shutdown end October 15+?
- +$944.31at 0.894Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
- +$791.07at 0.716Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
- +$790.88at 0.901Will Powell say "Trump" during October press conference?
- +$686.44at 0.881Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-05 16:18 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 32°C on August 6? | BUY | 0.994 | $185.00 |
| 08-05 16:17 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 32°C on August 6? | BUY | 0.993 | $43.69 |
| 08-05 13:14 | Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 30°C on August 7? | BUY | 0.98 | $215.21 |
| 08-04 02:06 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 38°C or higher on August 4? | BUY | 0.9921928769 | $121.00 |
| 08-04 02:05 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 38°C or higher on August 4? | BUY | 0.9881680532 | $118.78 |
| 08-03 04:33 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 35°C on August 3? | BUY | 0.9896673365 | $238.00 |
| 08-03 04:28 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 38°C or higher on August 4? | BUY | 0.99 | $39.60 |
| 08-03 04:21 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 38°C or higher on August 4? | BUY | 0.99 | $160.38 |
| 08-01 07:07 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 35°C or higher on August 2? | BUY | 0.98 | $23.52 |
| 08-01 03:24 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 35°C or higher on August 2? | BUY | 0.99 | $108.90 |
| 08-01 03:17 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 29°C on August 2? | BUY | 0.99 | $149.54 |
| 07-31 13:30 | Will Trump’s remarks not air? | BUY | 0.99 | $12.55 |
| 07-31 13:27 | Will Trump say "Nazi" or "Hitler" during cabinet meeting? | BUY | 0.93 | $93.00 |
| 07-31 13:26 | Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 31? | SELL | 0.999 | $55.83 |
| 07-31 13:25 | Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 31? | SELL | 0.999 | $154.95 |