PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Sign in

Traders

0xd37E1cd81219eEc3CE86375C2c40B538C8C05199-1775570328078

0xd37e1cd81219eec3ce86375c2c40b538c8c05199

Realised P&L
$11.46
Volume
$1.3k
Markets traded
27
Open portfolio
$10.59

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.9%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded27
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration38.4% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
CautionSettled sample10 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration51.9% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
OPEC dissolves in 2026? · Yes0.0600.055$5.50$0.50
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? · Yes0.1800.150$3.00$0.60
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · Yes0.2000.065$1.30$2.70
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · Yes0.0740.040$0.79$0.69
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30? · Yes0.1200.000$0.00$1.20
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? · Yes0.1300.000$0.00$2.60
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? · Yes0.0500.000$0.00$2.00
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? · Yes0.0590.000$0.00$0.72
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? · Yes0.0290.000$0.00$1.74
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? · Yes0.0240.000$0.00$0.96
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30? · Yes0.0200.000$0.00$1.00
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31? · Yes0.0500.000$0.00$1.00
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026? · Yes0.0250.000$0.00$1.00
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? · Yes0.0400.000$0.00$1.20
Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30? · Yes0.0150.000$0.00$1.04

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
05-07 18:43Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?BUY0.05$2.00
05-03 08:21Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30?BUY0.0148798571$1.04
05-02 14:08Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?BUY0.029$1.16
04-22 06:01Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026?SELL0.002$0.01
04-21 15:47Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?BUY0.19$3.55
04-20 08:37Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026?BUY0.127$0.80
04-19 19:33Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?BUY0.12$1.20
04-19 18:20Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?BUY0.074$1.48
04-19 18:08Houthis successfully target shipping by April 30?BUY0.2$1.00
04-19 17:36Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?BUY0.09$1.08
04-19 17:31Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?BUY0.2$4.00