mt2026
0xd15972601c7ad00f7099e23c9320cfbf82086ad4
- Realised P&L
- $7.25
- Volume
- $229.09
- Markets traded
- 14
- Open portfolio
- $31.11
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.2%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded14
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration39.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample7 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)71.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration33.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? · Yes | 0.474 | 0.979 | $10.31 | +$5.31 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 8% and 10%? · Yes | 0.197 | 0.280 | $7.11 | +$2.11 |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House · Yes | 0.440 | 0.415 | $4.72 | −$0.28 |
| Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.360 | 0.335 | $4.65 | −$0.35 |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.610 | 0.525 | $4.30 | −$0.70 |
| Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? · Yes | 0.089 | 0.001 | $0.01 | −$2.49 |
| Starmer out by August 31, 2026? · No | 0.483 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.26at 0.540Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?
- +$2.54at 0.660Viktor Orbán out by December 31, 2026?
- +$1.76at 0.740Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?
- +$1.26at 0.320Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 Winner
- +$0.95at 0.470Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-11 00:53 | Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 8% and 10%? | BUY | 0.1968271464 | $5.00 |
| 06-11 00:43 | Starmer out by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4827205324 | $5.00 |
| 06-10 22:40 | Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.359999977 | $5.00 |
| 06-02 01:35 | Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.6099999756 | $5.00 |
| 04-29 17:58 | Viktor Orbán out by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.996 | $7.54 |
| 04-29 17:57 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | SELL | 0.92 | $1.95 |
| 04-25 00:44 | Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? | BUY | 0.4899999784 | $2.50 |
| 04-22 01:21 | Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? | BUY | 0.4599999522 | $2.50 |
| 04-12 19:25 | Will Galatasaray win the Süper Lig? | BUY | 0.3299999591 | $5.00 |
| 04-10 19:28 | Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? | SELL | 0.367 | $10.35 |
| 03-20 22:12 | Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 Winner | SELL | 0.725 | $2.26 |
| 03-20 22:00 | Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 Winner | BUY | 0.32 | $1.00 |
| 03-12 20:10 | Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? | BUY | 0.6299999811 | $5.00 |
| 03-12 01:05 | Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election? | BUY | 0.5399999654 | $5.00 |
| 03-12 00:57 | Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? | BUY | 0.0886454028 | $5.00 |