0xcf1adb9e5d9718d31f065c755389b810fc8c617e
- Realised P&L
- $-233.00
- Volume
- $3.8k
- Markets traded
- 14
- Open portfolio
- $56.47
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-6.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded14
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration45.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample12 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)25.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration69.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) be included in the next Romanian government? · Yes | 0.158 | 0.131 | $38.84 | −$8.21 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · Yes | 0.375 | 0.205 | $17.33 | −$14.39 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$10.43at 0.780Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?
- +$9.41at 0.770US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
- +$2.90at 0.879Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?
- +$-5.27at 0.160Trump out as President before 2027?
- +$-10.14at 0.290Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-24 11:34 | Will the Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) be included in the next Romanian government? | BUY | 0.2879999925 | $23.64 |
| 07-24 11:33 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.28 | $23.66 |
| 07-24 11:32 | Will the Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) be included in the next Romanian government? | BUY | 0.100131991 | $3.06 |
| 07-24 11:31 | Trump out as President before 2027? | SELL | 0.07 | $4.10 |
| 06-06 12:49 | Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | BUY | 0.0350538903 | $19.42 |
| 06-06 12:48 | Will the Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) be included in the next Romanian government? | BUY | 0.11 | $20.35 |
| 05-08 09:54 | Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? | BUY | 0.0089999992 | $11.81 |
| 05-02 14:29 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.2999999949 | $35.44 |
| 05-02 14:27 | Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.998 | $47.73 |
| 04-16 19:15 | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | BUY | 0.7699999868 | $31.49 |
| 04-16 19:12 | Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.969 | $31.28 |
| 04-12 19:18 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | SELL | 0.01 | $0.36 |
| 04-11 16:20 | Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.9499999323 | $3.51 |
| 04-11 16:19 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | BUY | 0.2899999848 | $10.50 |
| 04-11 16:18 | Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April? | BUY | 0.58 | $41.99 |