0xceF868d0955C4bBeD42E2525f7FEE7A39D21a4Ed-1770532746642
0xcef868d0955c4bbed42e2525f7fee7a39d21a4ed
- Realised P&L
- $4.3k
- Volume
- $154.1k
- Markets traded
- 366
- Open portfolio
- $432.13
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.8%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded366
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration32.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)48.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration41.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on August 10? · No | 0.794 | 0.770 | $177.24 | −$5.56 |
| Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on August 9? · No | 0.528 | 0.365 | $122.59 | −$54.79 |
| Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on August 10? · Yes | 0.450 | 0.515 | $31.23 | +$3.95 |
| Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on August 11? · No | 0.850 | 0.870 | $26.48 | +$0.61 |
| Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on August 10? · Yes | 0.283 | 0.215 | $24.25 | −$7.70 |
| Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on August 9? · Yes | 0.306 | 0.195 | $22.56 | −$12.89 |
| Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on August 9? · No | 0.770 | 0.805 | $17.49 | +$0.76 |
| Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on August 9? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.145 | $10.66 | +$0.36 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.6kat 0.010Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs aimclub (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #4 Playoffs
- +$925.88at 0.407Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open?
- +$818.99at 0.572Will Finland win the 2026 IIHF World Championship?
- +$456.59at 0.537Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 4.5
- +$450.00at 0.550Armenia vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 2.5
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-08 11:15 | Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on August 8? | BUY | 0.5649420001 | $82.31 |
| 08-08 10:04 | Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on August 8? | BUY | 0.001 | $1.03 |
| 06-07 20:40 | Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 | BUY | 0.57 | $602.50 |
| 06-06 19:45 | Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 | BUY | 0.91 | $910.00 |
| 06-06 09:05 | Kashiwa Reysol vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: O/U 2.5 | BUY | 0.49 | $32.86 |
| 06-06 07:04 | FC Tōkyō vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 4.5 | BUY | 0.65 | $15.22 |
| 06-06 06:57 | FC Tōkyō vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 4.5 | BUY | 0.75 | $15.50 |
| 06-04 18:24 | Counter-Strike: HyperSpirit vs HEROIC Academy - Map 1 Winner | BUY | 0.51 | $1.7k |
| 06-02 14:41 | Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? | BUY | 0.528 | $154.18 |
| 06-01 11:54 | Will Anastasia Potapova win the 2026 Women’s French Open? | SELL | 0.052 | $0.68 |
| 06-01 11:54 | Will Anastasia Potapova win the 2026 Women’s French Open? | SELL | 0.044 | $0.57 |
| 06-01 11:35 | Will Anastasia Potapova win the 2026 Women’s French Open? | SELL | 0.037 | $0.48 |
| 06-01 11:32 | Will Anastasia Potapova win the 2026 Women’s French Open? | SELL | 0.029 | $0.38 |
| 05-31 21:05 | Will Finland win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? | BUY | 0.549999991 | $24.48 |
| 05-31 21:05 | Will Switzerland win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? | BUY | 0.59 | $5.90 |