Arlenefg
0xcb20f8b133768201d69b4538d1ba0e175153025a
- Realised P&L
- $42.04
- Volume
- $4.9k
- Markets traded
- 35
- Open portfolio
- $29.11
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded35
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample43 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)48.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Piers Morgan attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding? · Yes | 0.340 | 0.410 | $29.11 | +$4.97 |
| Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-23? · No | 0.570 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$19.66 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$28.88at 0.500Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
- +$23.90at 0.500Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the next leader out before 2027?
- +$23.90at 0.500Will Tesla be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
- +$19.52at 0.390Spread: Argentina (-1.5)
- +$18.92at 0.500Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-05 11:20 | Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.06 |
| 08-05 11:20 | Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.998 | $57.88 |
| 08-05 11:19 | Will Piers Morgan attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding? | BUY | 0.34 | $24.14 |
| 07-14 03:23 | Will France win the World Cup? | BUY | 0.62 | $23.56 |
| 07-02 11:32 | Spread: Argentina (-1.5) | BUY | 0.39 | $12.48 |
| 06-15 08:57 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? | SELL | 0.998 | $27.96 |
| 06-15 08:57 | Will United States win on 2026-06-19? | BUY | 0.61 | $23.55 |
| 06-15 08:56 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? | BUY | 0.999 | $28.00 |
| 06-05 08:46 | Will Salvatore Alfano win the 2026 Pompei mayoral election? | BUY | 0.61 | $22.81 |
| 05-21 03:13 | Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-23? | BUY | 0.57 | $19.66 |
| 05-06 06:15 | Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.998 | $37.92 |
| 05-06 06:15 | Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.04 |
| 04-15 01:46 | Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 April 13-19? | BUY | 0.999 | $17.00 |
| 03-25 08:28 | Will Bubba Watson win the 2026 Masters tournament? | SELL | 0.996 | $47.95 |
| 03-25 08:27 | Will Bubba Watson win the 2026 Masters tournament? | BUY | 0.997 | $48.00 |