0xca8976005Eff83bb00DFafc9e52bFa82bDDd2746-1782735737711
0xca8976005eff83bb00dfafc9e52bfa82bddd2746
- Realised P&L
- $-220.11
- Volume
- $43.4k
- Markets traded
- 19
- Open portfolio
- $162.79
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded19
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration91.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample22 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)27.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration90.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.153 | 0.151 | $147.80 | −$1.46 |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on August 5? · Up | 0.988 | 1.000 | $14.99 | +$0.17 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$20.57at 0.766SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 5?
- +$0.80at 0.960Will Mikie Sherrill attend the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final?
- +$0.65at 0.079SPY (SPY) Up or Down on July 7?
- +$0.27at 0.380Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?
- +$0.20at 0.184Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-05 13:56 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 5? | SELL | 0.78 | $0.02 |
| 08-05 13:52 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 5? | BUY | 0.7657232976 | $602.06 |
| 08-05 13:52 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 5? | SELL | 0.75 | $21.32 |
| 08-05 13:47 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 5? | SELL | 0.78 | $7.80 |
| 08-05 13:46 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 5? | SELL | 0.78 | $5.09 |
| 08-05 12:01 | Will Lauri Saaskilahti Win the 2026 WSOP Main Event? | SELL | 0.397 | $397.00 |
| 08-05 12:00 | Will Lauri Saaskilahti Win the 2026 WSOP Main Event? | BUY | 0.40342005 | $403.42 |
| 07-29 08:50 | Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.132 | $405.69 |
| 07-28 17:34 | Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.1348644986 | $49.76 |
| 07-27 18:35 | Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.15 | $2.55 |
| 07-21 11:02 | Will LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27? | SELL | 0.865 | $173.00 |
| 07-21 10:11 | Will LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27? | SELL | 0.879 | $21.98 |
| 07-20 11:03 | Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27? | SELL | 0.5303535929 | $742.50 |
| 07-17 12:33 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on July 20? | SELL | 0.48 | $3.00 |
| 07-17 12:32 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 20? | SELL | 0.43 | $86.00 |