Vincent44230
0xc78bd4be80c847996f56ddb5834f0c2e4f382ca5
- Realised P&L
- $-3.1k
- Volume
- $297.9k
- Markets traded
- 450
- Open portfolio
- $408.76
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded450
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration42.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)28.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration59.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? · Yes | 0.350 | 0.385 | $242.00 | +$22.00 |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026? · Yes | 0.174 | 0.145 | $166.76 | −$33.24 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026? · Yes | 0.032 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026? · No | 0.645 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$150.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET · Down | 0.206 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.86 |
| Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026? · Yes | 0.285 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$600.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 2, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET · Down | 0.051 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
| Will Paul Seixas win the White Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France? · Yes | 0.307 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$53.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET · Up | 0.032 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$7.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$560.14at 0.426Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?
- +$549.52at 0.132Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 27 to July 29, 2026?
- +$543.41at 0.798Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?
- +$447.43at 0.273Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026?
- +$421.80at 0.465Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 15:56 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.3499999993 | $220.00 |
| 08-02 13:24 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 2, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET | BUY | 0.0299999712 | $1.00 |
| 08-02 13:24 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 2, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET | BUY | 0.08 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 13:10 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.1738993493 | $200.00 |
| 08-01 22:02 | Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | SELL | 0.2298379986 | $330.00 |
| 08-01 20:49 | Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | SELL | 0.128545573 | $47.36 |
| 08-01 06:39 | Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.2089999982 | $77.00 |
| 07-31 21:58 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET | BUY | 0.01 | $1.00 |
| 07-31 21:57 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET | BUY | 0.0299999857 | $2.00 |
| 07-31 21:57 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET | BUY | 0.0699999688 | $2.00 |
| 07-31 21:57 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET | BUY | 0.0899999599 | $2.00 |
| 07-31 21:56 | Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 30 to August 1, 2026? | SELL | 0.22 | $78.57 |
| 07-31 08:59 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET | SELL | 0.13 | $3.25 |
| 07-31 08:59 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET | BUY | 0.0599999724 | $2.00 |
| 07-31 08:58 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET | BUY | 0.4 | $10.00 |