0xc75688d73d1f89744725992d72a5c45c6c2add9d
- Realised P&L
- $2.64
- Volume
- $55.44
- Markets traded
- 13
- Open portfolio
- $15.10
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar4.8%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded13
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample7 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)14.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration31.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.605 | $4.68 | +$2.59 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? · Yes | 0.770 | 0.999 | $2.71 | +$0.62 |
| Will Grab (GRAB) beat quarterly earnings? · No | 0.490 | 0.510 | $2.18 | +$0.09 |
| Will Figma (FIG) beat quarterly earnings? · Yes | 0.700 | 0.650 | $1.94 | −$0.15 |
| Will Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) beat quarterly earnings? · No | 0.480 | 0.445 | $1.94 | −$0.15 |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 31? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.190 | $1.65 | −$0.44 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.00at 0.499Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?
- +$0.00at 0.500New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI?
- +$0.00at 0.500Another pandemic before GTA VI?
- +$0.00at 0.500New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?
- +$0.00at 0.500Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-03 04:06 | Will Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.4799999541 | $2.09 |
| 08-02 19:38 | Will Grab (GRAB) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.4899998945 | $2.09 |
| 08-02 00:06 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.2699999315 | $2.09 |
| 08-01 16:06 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? | BUY | 0.7699997495 | $2.09 |
| 08-01 04:17 | Will Figma (FIG) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.6999999665 | $2.09 |
| 07-31 18:24 | New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.42 |
| 07-31 10:20 | Israel closes its airspace by August 31? | BUY | 0.2399999219 | $2.09 |
| 07-31 01:54 | Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.53 |
| 07-30 06:40 | New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.53 |
| 07-29 07:01 | Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.4989999935 | $1.99 |
| 07-28 19:38 | Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5099999268 | $1.95 |
| 07-28 04:55 | Another pandemic before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $2.04 |
| 07-27 19:15 | Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5099999268 | $1.95 |