Luke-skywalker
0xc6d2dc0a633a8ab5288489b5c385f4bed18f395b
- Realised P&L
- $-536.39
- Volume
- $6.3k
- Markets traded
- 158
- Open portfolio
- $541.16
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-8.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded158
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration38.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)78.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration88.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$68.83at 0.743Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in February?
- +$15.71at 0.420Will NVIDIA reach $192 in February?
- +$15.13at 0.931Will the government shutdown last 4 days or more?
- +$11.51at 0.335Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?
- +$9.44at 0.479Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-20 19:34 | Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-20? | BUY | 0.16 | $1.00 |
| 05-20 19:28 | Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? | SELL | 0.53 | $4.27 |
| 05-20 19:00 | Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? | BUY | 0.6199999628 | $5.00 |
| 05-19 06:16 | Will Solana dip to $80 in May? | SELL | 0.5413065154 | $31.49 |
| 05-18 18:14 | Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? | SELL | 0.983 | $15.35 |
| 05-18 06:11 | Will Solana dip to $80 in May? | BUY | 0.64 | $10.00 |
| 05-18 06:10 | Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? | BUY | 0.9199999998 | $160.00 |
| 05-18 06:09 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | SELL | 0.61 | $149.08 |
| 05-17 05:02 | Will Solana dip to $80 in May? | BUY | 0.4699999929 | $20.00 |
| 05-12 16:41 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | BUY | 0.6 | $10.00 |
| 05-11 09:32 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | BUY | 0.6314501648 | $20.00 |
| 05-11 05:15 | Will OpenAI have the second highest estimated revenue for May 11–May 17, 2026? | BUY | 0.975 | $10.00 |
| 05-11 04:43 | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.9599999616 | $10.00 |
| 05-10 20:41 | Will Trump visit China by May 31? | SELL | 0.946 | $5.02 |
| 05-10 20:40 | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.5914040562 | $75.82 |