0xc4ef9195428cdf0130544a738e861107b4e1520b
- Realised P&L
- $-60.14
- Volume
- $22.8k
- Markets traded
- 45
- Open portfolio
- $14.07
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded45
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample36 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)2.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration79.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? · Yes | 0.090 | 1.000 | $11.12 | +$10.12 |
| Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.016 | 0.021 | $1.19 | +$0.30 |
| Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.024 | 0.025 | $0.98 | +$0.05 |
| Will Toronto FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? · Yes | 0.025 | 0.004 | $0.56 | −$3.44 |
| Will San Diego Padres win the 2026 National League Championship Series? · Yes | 0.083 | 0.018 | $0.21 | −$0.79 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? · Yes | 0.032 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? · Yes | 0.070 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.33 |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027? · Yes | 0.072 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.99 |
| Will Czechia win on 2026-03-26? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$38.46 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.50at 0.740EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?
- +$0.00at 0.150Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?
- +$-0.05at 0.083Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 1?
- +$-0.05at 0.330Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?
- +$-0.05at 0.580US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-02 18:34 | Will Susie Wiles leave the Trump administration before 2027? | SELL | 0.65 | $3.25 |
| 04-02 18:34 | Will Susie Wiles leave the Trump administration before 2027? | BUY | 0.67 | $3.35 |
| 04-01 13:35 | Spread: Hawks (-4.5) | SELL | 0.52 | $2.61 |
| 04-01 13:35 | Spread: Hawks (-4.5) | BUY | 0.5299999725 | $2.62 |
| 04-01 13:24 | Hawks vs. Magic: O/U 233.5 | SELL | 0.49 | $2.45 |
| 04-01 09:25 | Spread: 76ers (-15.5) | SELL | 0.46 | $2.31 |
| 04-01 09:00 | Spread: 76ers (-15.5) | BUY | 0.4699999863 | $2.32 |
| 04-01 04:32 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 1? | SELL | 0.081 | $1.94 |
| 03-31 16:58 | LoL: Galions vs Solary - Game 3 Winner | SELL | 0.2 | $1.00 |
| 03-31 14:10 | EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.84 | $4.20 |
| 03-31 00:22 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? | SELL | 0.15 | $0.45 |
| 03-31 00:22 | Will Donald Trump be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? | SELL | 0.032 | $0.64 |
| 03-30 07:46 | Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? | SELL | 0.07 | $1.02 |
| 03-30 07:45 | Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? | BUY | 0.08 | $1.16 |
| 03-30 07:45 | Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.07 | $0.70 |