PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

otter00

0xc4b1542335b908e583ccb8e615216c3023852f2a

Realised P&L
$76.29
Volume
$19.6k
Markets traded
74
Open portfolio
$74.85

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded74
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration20.1% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample37 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)62.2%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration25.7% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? · Yes0.1580.240$19.21+$6.60
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.1500.095$19.00$11.00
Costco increases hotdog price before 2027? · Yes0.0830.075$11.18$1.25
Apple Vision Pro 2 released before 2027? · Yes0.1820.070$8.58$13.75
Will Donald Trump visit Louisiana in 2026? · Yes0.4900.450$7.20$0.64
Natural Disaster in 2026? · Yes0.3600.225$6.75$4.05
Will Donald Trump visit Vermont in 2026? · Yes0.1390.225$2.92+$1.12
Will Leonardo DiCaprio be nominated for Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role at the 2026 SAG Awards? · No0.1810.000$0.00$3.23
Will "Sinners" be nominated for Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture at the 32nd Actor Awards? · No0.2650.000$0.00$3.25
US government shutdown Saturday? · No0.2100.000$0.00$6.30
Will Andorra win on 2025-09-06? · Yes0.0080.000$0.00$5.00
Will the AAVE token alignment proposal pass? · Yes0.0260.000$0.00$10.10
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win Super Bowl 2026? · Yes0.0600.000$0.00$6.00
Will Keir Starmer say "NHS" during the next Prime Minister's Questions? · No0.3400.000$0.00$3.40
Zama auction clearing price above $0.05? · Yes0.0190.000$0.00$2.40

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
07-10 18:14Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?BUY0.5975$11.95
06-19 13:48Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?BUY0.15$30.00
06-11 18:29Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.016$1.60
06-05 11:27Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.026$5.20
06-04 19:58Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.018$1.80
06-04 19:58Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.084$8.40
04-25 22:14Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026?SELL0.08$14.22
04-03 20:13Will Donald Trump visit Vermont in 2026?SELL0.58$15.66
03-09 10:53US forces enter Iran by March 14?BUY0.24$4.80
02-23 12:53Flying Tulip FDV above $400M one day after launch?BUY0.046$4.03
01-28 14:49Costco increases hotdog price before 2027?BUY0.07$3.43
01-27 19:54US government shutdown Saturday?BUY0.21$3.15
01-27 19:54US government shutdown Saturday?BUY0.21$3.15
01-26 11:31Zama auction clearing price above $0.05?BUY0.019$2.40
01-24 18:23New COVID variant of concern before 2027?SELL0.18$27.00