LiamGardner234
0xc44eecb672df4118ff585c1825107aedec77fa52
- Realised P&L
- $-23.04
- Volume
- $9.5k
- Markets traded
- 354
- Open portfolio
- $80.19
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded354
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration17.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration41.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on August 6? · No | 0.999 | 1.000 | $33.22 | +$0.02 |
| Will Rachel Hurley be the TN-05 Democratic nominee? · No | 0.999 | 0.999 | $32.28 | −$0.02 |
| Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C or below on August 6? · No | 0.999 | 0.998 | $7.47 | −$0.01 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on August 6? · No | 0.999 | 0.998 | $7.21 | −$0.01 |
| Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C or higher on July 26? · No | 0.997 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.60 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.67at 0.993Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?
- +$0.10at 0.997Will Anthony Edwards win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?
- +$0.06at 0.998Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on July 10?
- +$0.05at 0.997Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on April 16?
- +$0.05at 0.997Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 23?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-05 23:28 | Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C or below on August 6? | BUY | 0.9989999314 | $7.48 |
| 08-05 18:11 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on August 6? | BUY | 0.999 | $7.22 |
| 08-05 17:56 | Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on August 6? | BUY | 0.999 | $33.20 |
| 08-05 12:45 | Will Rachel Hurley be the TN-05 Democratic nominee? | BUY | 0.9989999793 | $32.30 |
| 08-05 09:57 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.9989999619 | $7.70 |
| 07-30 22:58 | Kash Patel out by July 31? | SELL | 0.998 | $5.38 |
| 07-30 19:45 | Kash Patel out by July 31? | BUY | 0.9989998877 | $5.39 |
| 07-30 18:05 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on July 31? | BUY | 0.9979999151 | $5.62 |
| 07-30 16:35 | Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C or below on July 31? | BUY | 0.9989999584 | $23.02 |
| 07-30 16:25 | Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on July 31? | BUY | 0.9989617737 | $19.60 |
| 07-30 15:14 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 Week of July 27 2026? | SELL | 0.998 | $14.49 |
| 07-30 15:12 | Will GPT-6 be released by July 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.998 | $34.90 |
| 07-30 10:13 | Will GPT-6 be released by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $16.04 |
| 07-30 09:53 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 Week of July 27 2026? | BUY | 0.997999939 | $14.50 |
| 07-30 08:31 | Will GPT-6 be released by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $18.90 |