Balalayka
0xc4488d7568c58c258f53e1395ba72dcf6a3c085e
- Realised P&L
- $1.3k
- Volume
- $336.6k
- Markets traded
- 2,004
- Open portfolio
- $135.82
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded2,004
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration17.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)92.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration22.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$53.41at 0.007Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on March 27?
- +$48.19at 0.050Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on April 22?
- +$46.21at 0.090Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 22?
- +$44.99at 0.306Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - EPL Championship Playoffs
- +$31.40at 0.025Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on February 22?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-04 15:27 | Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on August 4? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.02 |
| 08-04 10:08 | Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on August 4? | BUY | 0.938 | $18.76 |
| 08-03 18:38 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 37°C on August 4? | SELL | 0.038 | $1.14 |
| 08-03 10:59 | Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on August 3? | BUY | 0.999 | $16.48 |
| 08-03 10:33 | Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on August 3? | BUY | 0.999 | $199.80 |
| 08-03 04:30 | Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Team Jenz (BO3) - EPL Masters Group A | SELL | 0.43 | $4.30 |
| 06-09 17:52 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 9? | SELL | 0.078 | $0.09 |
| 06-07 15:13 | Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 7? | SELL | 0.056 | $1.25 |
| 06-06 20:49 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 7? | SELL | 0.069 | $0.61 |
| 06-04 12:32 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 4? | BUY | 0.999 | $39.96 |
| 06-03 10:39 | Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 3? | BUY | 0.97 | $4.85 |
| 05-25 23:28 | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on May 26? | SELL | 0.0607778894 | $1.21 |
| 05-24 17:32 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 62°F or higher on May 24? | SELL | 0.02 | $0.14 |
| 05-22 22:35 | Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy booster? | BUY | 0.993 | $4.96 |
| 05-16 11:18 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 65°F or below on May 16? | BUY | 0.999 | $39.96 |