Esmeraldal
0xc2c7601afad33c5fbbc8d7df6aecd5218ce48427
- Realised P&L
- $-1.1k
- Volume
- $3.1k
- Markets traded
- 16
- Open portfolio
- $19.13
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-34.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded16
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration60.7% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample11 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)72.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 11? · Yes | 0.800 | 0.780 | $19.50 | −$0.50 |
| Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 · Under | 0.580 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.0k |
| Solana Up or Down - May 31, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET · Up | 0.524 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$46.31 |
| Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.58 |
| Solana Up or Down - May 31, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET · Up | 0.503 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$25.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$33.82at 0.542Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET
- +$10.93at 0.459Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?
- +$7.87at 0.823Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
- +$2.50at 0.750Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
- +$0.30at 0.930US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-08 08:59 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 11? | BUY | 0.8 | $20.00 |
| 08-08 08:58 | GTA 6 launch postponed again? | SELL | 0.89 | $16.63 |
| 07-09 06:49 | GTA 6 launch postponed again? | BUY | 0.9099999995 | $17.00 |
| 07-09 06:48 | Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of July 2026? | SELL | 0.838 | $17.82 |
| 06-29 05:19 | Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of July 2026? | BUY | 0.9405940515 | $20.00 |
| 06-26 09:59 | Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 | BUY | 0.5799999999 | $1.0k |
| 06-26 08:01 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | SELL | 0.989 | $15.16 |
| 06-20 13:19 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | BUY | 0.9779999533 | $15.00 |
| 06-08 06:41 | Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? | BUY | 0.458791455 | $55.00 |
| 06-08 06:40 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | SELL | 0.855 | $60.06 |
| 05-31 14:54 | Solana Up or Down - May 31, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET | BUY | 0.5238687783 | $46.31 |
| 05-31 13:36 | Solana Up or Down - May 31, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET | BUY | 0.5029486573 | $25.00 |
| 05-30 13:01 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | BUY | 0.8229999979 | $57.82 |
| 05-30 13:00 | Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET | BUY | 0.541871921 | $40.00 |
| 05-30 12:58 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? | SELL | 0.7157603687 | $99.40 |