Thomas871
0xbf3415b6285b7ec56648bf1cb85e445051b7e9f2
- Realised P&L
- $6.19
- Volume
- $16.1k
- Markets traded
- 106
- Open portfolio
- $1.41
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded106
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration24.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.65at 0.740Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?
- +$2.68at 0.190Iran closes its airspace by June 30?
- +$2.28at 0.370US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?
- +$1.83at 0.800Cuban regime falls in 2026?
- +$1.71at 0.400Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-25 12:11 | Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | BUY | 0.978 | $53.79 |
| 06-25 02:47 | Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.13 | $2.99 |
| 06-25 01:19 | Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.13 | $1.30 |
| 06-25 01:18 | Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.13 | $7.93 |
| 06-24 22:53 | China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | SELL | 0.92 | $48.76 |
| 06-24 18:16 | China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | BUY | 0.92 | $37.26 |
| 06-24 03:09 | Cuban regime falls in 2026? | SELL | 0.82 | $49.20 |
| 06-23 22:38 | Cuban regime falls in 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $27.20 |
| 06-23 09:09 | China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | BUY | 0.92 | $47.84 |
| 06-23 03:41 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.6 | $3.00 |
| 06-23 03:37 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.6 | $45.00 |
| 06-22 20:56 | Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? | BUY | 0.17 | $7.96 |
| 06-22 00:47 | Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.961 | $0.96 |
| 06-21 16:20 | Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.105 | $7.14 |
| 06-20 21:07 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.57 | $50.73 |