0xbEc8107a020e810fFf6f9A140cf560daa6aA6695-1771195643116
0xbec8107a020e810fff6f9a140cf560daa6aa6695
- Realised P&L
- $757.60
- Volume
- $26.2k
- Markets traded
- 159
- Open portfolio
- $236.55
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.9%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded159
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration47.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)12.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration36.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will at least 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.228 | 0.255 | $86.70 | +$9.30 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.290 | $58.00 | +$8.00 |
| Will at least 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.390 | $39.00 | +$9.00 |
| Will at least 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.045 | 0.070 | $34.54 | +$12.18 |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.183 | 0.043 | $9.33 | −$30.80 |
| Will at least 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.215 | $8.98 | +$2.71 |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$45.25 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 27? · No | 0.080 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$7.04 |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.040 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$24.00 |
| Iran full airspace closure by July 31? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$204.21at 0.061Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?
- +$171.00at 0.030Will Trump and Netanyahu not shake hands by July 31, 2026?
- +$129.14at 0.070Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?
- +$120.90at 0.045Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Egypt?
- +$111.25at 0.080Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-03 18:14 | Will at least 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.24 | $24.00 |
| 07-23 20:27 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 23? | SELL | 0.012 | $2.78 |
| 07-23 20:02 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 23? | BUY | 0.0216067529 | $5.00 |
| 07-19 20:36 | Exact Score: Spain 1 - 2 Argentina? | BUY | 0.05 | $5.00 |
| 07-17 00:35 | Will Trump say "Nuclear" 15+ times during Speech to the Nation? | BUY | 0.0363032739 | $10.00 |
| 07-17 00:33 | Will Trump say "Iran" or "Iranian" 20+ times during Speech to the Nation? | BUY | 0.0599999946 | $10.00 |
| 07-14 18:54 | Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Spain? | BUY | 0.1062883997 | $10.00 |
| 07-14 18:53 | Exact Score: France 2 - 3 Spain? | BUY | 0.0290000001 | $10.00 |
| 07-14 18:53 | Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Spain? | BUY | 0.0299999971 | $10.00 |
| 07-14 18:52 | Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Spain? | BUY | 0.0699999939 | $10.00 |
| 07-14 18:52 | Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Spain? | BUY | 0.08 | $10.00 |
| 07-14 18:52 | Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Spain? | BUY | 0.08 | $10.00 |
| 07-09 19:42 | Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Morocco? | BUY | 0.119999996 | $25.00 |
| 07-09 19:25 | Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Morocco? | BUY | 0.0699999939 | $10.00 |
| 07-09 19:22 | Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Morocco? | BUY | 0.0339999936 | $5.00 |