0xbB65c09B27d1E732D69f59438e86D10682AA309b-1774198045318
0xbb65c09b27d1e732d69f59438e86d10682aa309b
- Realised P&L
- $-69.38
- Volume
- $33.1k
- Markets traded
- 48
- Open portfolio
- $1.3k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded48
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration24.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample40 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration71.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2? · Yes | 0.107 | 0.965 | $929.65 | +$826.92 |
| Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 3-August 9? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.295 | $140.37 | +$21.46 |
| Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 3-August 9? · Yes | 0.172 | 0.355 | $113.40 | +$58.40 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? · Yes | 0.164 | 0.085 | $103.89 | −$96.11 |
| Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2? · Yes | 0.572 | 0.009 | $7.39 | −$462.61 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET · Up | 0.231 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$177.61 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET · Down | 0.740 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET · Down | 0.510 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$197.15at 0.440Bitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET
- +$135.59at 0.590Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 29?
- +$117.39at 0.460Bitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET
- +$85.69at 0.250Bitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET
- +$65.54at 0.465Bitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-03 19:53 | Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 3-August 9? | BUY | 0.41 | $4.10 |
| 08-02 22:01 | Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 3-August 9? | BUY | 0.1199999808 | $5.00 |
| 08-02 21:53 | Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 3-August 9? | BUY | 0.0512529752 | $25.00 |
| 08-02 21:36 | Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2? | BUY | 0.05 | $0.72 |
| 08-02 21:36 | Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2? | BUY | 0.049 | $6.62 |
| 08-02 21:34 | Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2? | BUY | 0.0489999955 | $10.00 |
| 08-02 21:34 | Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2? | BUY | 0.02 | $0.77 |
| 08-02 20:45 | Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 3-August 9? | BUY | 0.2371876385 | $74.91 |
| 08-02 20:45 | Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 3-August 9? | BUY | 0.1799999976 | $50.00 |
| 08-02 19:33 | Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2? | BUY | 0.6000388256 | $230.00 |
| 08-02 19:25 | Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2? | BUY | 0.5480894508 | $240.00 |
| 08-01 20:08 | Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2? | SELL | 0.5283870968 | $65.52 |
| 08-01 09:48 | Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2? | BUY | 0.08 | $10.00 |
| 07-29 22:42 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 30? | SELL | 0.51 | $2.88 |
| 07-29 22:31 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 30? | BUY | 0.5191347749 | $300.00 |