9283
0xb76e5d6e758274968204f4fbf74d3882b65f70bc
- Realised P&L
- $2.59
- Volume
- $361.31
- Markets traded
- 99
- Open portfolio
- $8.65
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded99
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration8.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration45.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.977 | 0.962 | $3.93 | −$0.07 |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31? · No | 0.950 | 0.963 | $2.03 | +$0.03 |
| Amazon 2026 capex above $170B? · Yes | 0.984 | 0.984 | $2.00 | +$0.00 |
| Will Ben Randall win the 2026 PLL Defensive Player of the Year? · Yes | 0.960 | 0.330 | $0.69 | −$1.31 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET · Up | 0.510 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - November 30, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET · Up | 0.510 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - November 27, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET · Up | 0.700 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET · Down | 0.510 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.28at 0.446Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET
- +$0.92at 0.520Bitcoin Up or Down - December 5, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET
- +$0.48at 0.893Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET
- +$0.42at 0.963Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?
- +$0.26at 0.886Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 2?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-29 12:21 | Will Apple say "iPhone" 10+ times during earnings call? | BUY | 0.9889999955 | $2.00 |
| 07-20 10:16 | Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.9769999946 | $2.00 |
| 07-20 10:16 | Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.9779998709 | $2.00 |
| 07-13 08:02 | Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31? | BUY | 0.95 | $2.00 |
| 07-10 02:04 | Amazon 2026 capex above $170B? | BUY | 0.984 | $2.00 |
| 07-02 01:56 | Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.98 | $2.00 |
| 06-26 02:24 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | BUY | 0.9879997431 | $2.00 |
| 06-24 02:15 | Will Ben Randall win the 2026 PLL Defensive Player of the Year? | BUY | 0.96 | $2.00 |
| 06-23 10:04 | Will Google have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? | BUY | 0.9819999863 | $1.00 |
| 06-23 10:04 | Will Google have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? | BUY | 0.981999999 | $2.00 |
| 06-18 12:57 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | BUY | 0.9639998708 | $2.00 |
| 06-18 12:57 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | BUY | 0.9639998708 | $2.00 |
| 06-13 14:38 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31? | BUY | 0.95 | $2.00 |
| 06-09 11:37 | Will Neymar play in the World Cup? | BUY | 0.9399997556 | $2.00 |
| 06-04 11:59 | GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.9789997879 | $3.00 |