MichaelPi
0xb25ed09b7693fc975c8d1ee825b4a37a60d4a93b
- Realised P&L
- $185.80
- Volume
- $158.4k
- Markets traded
- 708
- Open portfolio
- $2.61
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded708
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration27.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration82.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$415.65at 0.010Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on May 29?
- +$130.12at 0.609Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 14?
- +$130.08at 0.254Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13?
- +$129.03at 0.596Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 7?
- +$117.09at 0.273Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on May 29?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-05 22:37 | Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on August 5? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.11 |
| 08-05 21:55 | Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on August 5? | SELL | 0.01 | $0.92 |
| 08-05 21:50 | Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on August 5? | BUY | 0.02 | $2.66 |
| 08-05 21:42 | Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on August 5? | SELL | 0.19 | $2.09 |
| 08-05 21:41 | Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on August 5? | BUY | 0.1 | $7.17 |
| 08-05 07:21 | Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on August 5? | SELL | 0.07 | $0.55 |
| 08-05 07:10 | Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on August 5? | SELL | 0.19 | $2.55 |
| 08-05 05:42 | Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.14 | $1.88 |
| 08-05 05:35 | Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on August 5? | SELL | 0.14 | $2.73 |
| 08-05 05:00 | Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.1 | $1.20 |
| 08-05 04:57 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET | SELL | 0.26 | $2.60 |
| 08-05 04:36 | Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on August 5? | SELL | 0.16 | $1.92 |
| 08-05 03:35 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET | BUY | 0.17 | $1.19 |
| 08-05 03:34 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET | BUY | 0.24 | $1.44 |
| 08-05 02:29 | Dogecoin Up or Down - August 4, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET | BUY | 0.02 | $1.33 |