0xadf2a4fc54834f6ae38d6fd6d4a52bc82dfa2053
- Realised P&L
- $-6.17
- Volume
- $500.51
- Markets traded
- 41
- Open portfolio
- $1.36
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded41
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration48.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample42 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)38.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration88.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on August 7? · No | 0.620 | 0.675 | $1.20 | +$0.10 |
| Will the highest temperature in Miami be 96°F or higher on August 6? · Yes | 0.006 | 0.001 | $0.10 | −$1.00 |
| Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on August 6? · Yes | 0.009 | 0.001 | $0.06 | −$1.04 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.34at 0.450Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on July 9?
- +$0.52at 0.400Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
- +$0.47at 0.700Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on August 5?
- +$0.16at 0.660Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C or below on August 7?
- +$0.06at 0.360Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on August 6?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-06 17:09 | Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C or below on August 7? | SELL | 0.84 | $0.31 |
| 08-06 17:08 | Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C or below on August 7? | SELL | 0.85 | $0.42 |
| 08-06 17:05 | Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on August 7? | SELL | 0.1 | $0.02 |
| 08-06 16:54 | Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on August 7? | SELL | 0.11 | $0.03 |
| 08-06 15:22 | Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on August 7? | SELL | 0.13 | $0.03 |
| 08-06 14:18 | Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on August 6? | BUY | 0.0089388017 | $1.10 |
| 08-06 12:52 | Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on August 7? | SELL | 0.17 | $0.02 |
| 08-06 11:17 | Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on August 7? | SELL | 0.19 | $0.18 |
| 08-06 11:05 | Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on August 7? | SELL | 0.19 | $0.16 |
| 08-06 10:27 | Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on August 7? | SELL | 0.25 | $0.13 |
| 08-06 09:22 | Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on August 7? | SELL | 0.34 | $0.02 |
| 08-06 09:21 | Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on August 7? | SELL | 0.37 | $1.07 |
| 08-06 08:55 | Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C or below on August 7? | BUY | 0.659999856 | $1.10 |
| 08-06 07:54 | Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on August 7? | BUY | 0.6199999775 | $1.10 |
| 08-06 07:45 | Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on August 7? | SELL | 0.6 | $0.99 |